发帖
雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月俄罗斯，乌克兰，哈萨克斯坦货币市场研究报告
【作者】：荷兰国际集团
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：65
【目录或简介】：
Finally, the worst is over for all three economies, though
lending remains depressed everywhere. Ukraine’s presidential
elections pave the way for greater political stability.
Kazakhstan’s economy is mending quicker than others.
CIS Quarterly
Attractive again
Oil-driven currencies are being boosted by higher oil prices.
The switch to a wider band has not visibly increased NBK’s appetite for KZT
firming. The CBR’s policy is much more accommodating, and the Russian
FX regime now has a closer resemblance to inflation targeting. We see RUB
firming to 33 vs the basket by end-2010 with a lot of volatility on the way.
In Russia, 15-17% credit expansion is plausible in 2010; it
may begin towards mid-year. Whilst in Russia, the 2009 deposit boom
has bolstered banks’ liabilities and made them willing to lend, in Kazakhstan
only the end of bank restructuring will likely unlock lending.
With Brent above US$70/bbl, Russian and Kazakh sovereign
and quasi-sovereign debt placements are likely to command
good terms. The resumption of the IMF programme is the most urgent
task of the new Ukrainian government, with a sovereign Eurobond unlikely
before this happens.
In Russia, CPI inflation is at historical lows and keeps
improving. However, the CBR should be unable to keep it in the single
digits for long, and policy tightening is likely already in end-2010.
We think that the RUB debt rally is very close to an end, if it
has not finished already. We recommend reducing aggressive
exposure to further market upside. Instead, we recommend focusing on
selective credit trades with the most attractive being Russian bank
Eurobonds. We particularly like HCFB, Bank of Moscow and VTB; in nonfinancials,
we see some upside in Gazprom, TNK-BP and the recently placed
Alliance Oil Company.
Contents
Russia: Where will growth come from? 3
Domestic demand: a snake biting its tail ...................................................................3
Investment: cannot be forced ....................................................................................5
Growth outlook: politics matter ..................................................................................6
Russia: Credit boom in the making? 7
Deposit miracle of 2009.............................................................................................7
Lending miracle around the corner?..........................................................................8
Russian debt 12
Focus on selective credit trades..............................................................................12
Time for being more neutral (previously bullish) on RUB debt................................15
Ukraine: Politics are less of a bother now 22
Ukraine: Corporate Eurobonds 32
External debt strategy 47
CIS Equities 49
Country sections
Russia .....................................................................................................................52
Ukraine ....................................................................................................................56
Kazakhstan..............................................................................................................60
Disclosures Appendix 64
呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵
京公网安备 11010802022788号
