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For LatAm, we discuss the 2009 regional
FX outlook, and focus on the ‘reluctant
floaters’, Argentina and Peru
For Asia, we also offer a regional FX
outlook, and discuss the shifting
intervention policy in the region
In EMEA, we provide detailed analysis
on the Gulf pegs, RUB, ZAR and TRY
Calling the help desk
As central banks around the world scramble to reduce the
impact of the global slowdown on their economies, be it
slashing interest rates, weakening their currencies and/or
introducing fiscal stimulus packages, it’s as if they are
putting out calls to their respective ‘help desks’.
Unfortunately, “For English press ‘one’, para Español
oprima ‘dos’” is often about the most helpful information
you hear on a call to the average help desk. Hopefully EM
central banks will find their efforts better rewarded, though
in the short term, it seems conditions are likely to worsen
before they improve.
In terms of rate cuts, Asia has generally been ahead of the
curve, EMEA behind but catching up rapidly, while Latin
American policymakers are late to the party.
We are also seeing marked differences between the regions
in terms of currency policy. Many central banks in Asia are
now buying USDs in efforts to weaken their currencies
(Philippines and India now joining Taiwan and Thailand as
USD buyers). Russia too is allowing the RUB to weaken.
But Latam central banks are still primarily in defense mode
vis-à-vis their currencies, still concerned about inflation
pass-through and the impact of weak FX rates on corporates.
Click below to listen to audio summaries for each region:
目录
Model portfolio and trade
recommendations 3
Chart of the month 4
Latam at a glance 6
2009 Latam FX Outlook 7
Reluctant floaters: Argentina and Peru 11
Asia at a glance 16
Asian FX regional outlook 17
Asian depreciation policy gathering momentum 25
EMEA at a glance 27
The Gulf’s dollar-pegs do not fall with oil 28
Russia: Rescue packages and RUB 34
South African policy shifts to the left 41
Turkey: Something’s got to give 45
Regional indices 56
Key global economic and FX
assumptions 58
Currency reference table 60
Emerging markets FX strategy
biographies 61
Disclosure appendix 63
Disclaimer 67
Contents
290480.pdf
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