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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月日本宏观经济研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：PPT
【页数】：52
【目录或简介】：
Main message: While the gradual spread of recovery momentum from exports to domestic segments is
positive, SMEs in general are lagging across the board. The overall trend is in line with the BoJ’s recovery
scenario, but we continue to be in a monetary easing cycle aimed at exiting deflation.
What’s new: The pace of improvement in the headline figures came in below our forecast, but, nonetheless,
the March Tankan marked the fourth straight quarter of recovery, also at a faster pace than historical
average. We see the bigger-than-expected upturn in large non-manufacturing DI as a positive factor that
underlies the recovery of domestic demand in Jan-Mar onward. As corporate business plans tend not to be
fixed in time for the March survey, we see upward revisions to the sales and profit plans a possibility ahead.
All in all, the risk of a near-term double-dip has receded, leaving room for further upside, depending on
policy and market conditions.
Policy implications: The March Tankan appears to offer support to the BoJ, which looks for a sustained
mild recovery. However, the government – aiming to exit deflation – remains hopeful of what monetary
policy has to offer. The BoJ has already decided some additional measures at the March MPM, but we
expect the Bank to expand its easing menu as and when needed, with prolonged deflation. Ultimately, it
would be ideal for the government and the BoJ to share a common inflation target; however, we think an
independent target by the BoJ is more likely.
Upside risks: Upside risks: Relative enhancement of Japan’s monetary accommodation as other major
countries implement exit strategies; and a resulting weakening of the yen that bolsters exports
Downside risks: Global contraction of excess liquidity and asset-market corrections prompted by exit
strategies from leading central banks; renewed strong-yen pressure associated with fiscal issues in Europe
and revaluation of the RMB that undermines the recovery cycle.
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