2010年3月印度电信行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月印度电信行业研究报告
        【作者】：Indiabulls 证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：64
        【目录或简介】：
Table of contents
Investment thesis ....................................................................................................4
Pricing concerns to wane...................................................................................................4
Spectrum policy risks overplayed. Policy changes to drive consolidation ..........................9
MNP unlikely to displace market......................................................................................11
Has the telecom market matured? We don’t think so.......................................................12
We introduce minute market share model – relevant in current dual SIM environment....16
Valuation multiple to expand – pick potential winners......................................................19
Risk to Investment Case..................................................................................................20
Companies
Bharti Airtel: Favorable risk reward ratio............................................................23
Idea Cellular: Top pick in the sector....................................................................37
Reliance Communication: No need to rush in....................................................49
TTML: Richly valued .............................................................................................59

We initiate coverage with ‘Outperform’ on Bharti/Idea & ‘Underperform’
on RCOM/TTML. We believe valuation multiples for Bharti/Idea would
expand as industry concerns wane over next 3-6 months & these
companies strengthen their position despite competitive headwinds.
This is driven by Minutes/EBITDA/EPS CAGR of 19%/ 8%/ 10% for Bharti
and 26%/ 16%/ 29% for Idea over FY10-12E. Top pick is Idea.
Pricing concerns to wane
We believe tariffs are likely to stabilize after sharp step down (~15-20% decline in
H2CY09). We believe (a) No value is left on table for new operators below 50p/min,
(b) New entrants require 10%-12% incremental minute market share (MinMS) for
value creation which is a tall task (Idea captures ~11% incremental MinMS with scale
of 66k BTS), and (c) Rural battleground is even more challenging for new entrants.
Spectrum policy risks overplayed
We are cognizant that spectrum policy changes have potential risks. We believe
spectrum policy would clear the dust and provide much needed stability in the sector
with likely exit of marginal players. Considering risk associated with policy changes,
we factor worst case valuation impact for Bharti/Idea/RCOM at Rs1.3/ 8.5/ 7.5 per sh.
MNP unlikely to displace market - post-paid MinMS dwindles
MNP is unlikely to displace the market since post-paid MinMS for GSM itself has
fallen to a meagre 13% vs. 22% two years back. In addition, tariff differences between
pre-paid & post-paid could primarily be attributed to higher proportion of ILD minutes
on post-paid segment. Hence, the chance of a further round of price war in the postpaid
segment looks bleak.
Has the telecom market matured? We don’t think so…
India’s MOU/capita is a meagre one-fifth of USA which underpins growth prospects.
We believe that India’s MOU/capita is likely to reach 50% of USA’s MOU/capita which
implies mobile minute CAGR of 21% over FY09-14e to 4500bn minutes.
…we introduce for the first time ‘minute market share’ model for telcos
Subs market share model & metrics (like ARPU, MOU) lose relevance in dual SIM
environment. Focus on minutes and RPM. We believe ‘minutes market share’ better
demonstrates operating performance of companies over ‘subs market share’. Hence,
we shift to MinMS model for our coverage companies. Our MinMS analysis reveals
Bharti & Idea have gained MinMS amidst competitive pressure in last two quarters.
Valuation multiple to expand – pick potential winners
Indian telecoms corrected by ~30%-50% amid tariff cuts (~15-20% in H2CY09); which
implies current valuation factors potential price cuts. We expect re-rating to happen as
tariffs stabilize & minutes growth exceed expectations. We expect Bharti/Idea will
outperform peers as these demonstrate Minutes/EBITDA CAGR of 19%/8% for Bharti
and 26%/16% for Idea over FY10-12E. Top pick is Idea.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 电信行业 battleground 研究报告 行业 印度 电信

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