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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月亚洲棕榈油行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：48
【目录或简介】：
Bullish on palm oil – raising CPO price assumptions
We are bullish on crude palm oil (CPO) and expect overall edible oil supply to
surprise the market on the downside, while demand should remain, at the very
least robust, helping push down stocks/usage ratios of all edible oils well into
2011. Further catalysts include resumption of weakness in US dollar, while any
strength in crude oil is a potent outlier. This mix of factors is likely to start exerting
itself strongly in mid-2Q, in our view. Consequently, we put ourselves at the top
end of consensus, increasing our average CPO price assumptions by 10% to
RM2,750/MT for 2010F and 17% to RM3,150/MT for 2011F. Signaling a longerterm
positive stance on palm oil and other agricultural commodities, we project
RM3,350/MT for 2012. With increasing sensitivity to stocks/usage ratios, edible oil
prices will react strongly to any small fundamental changes, especially supply. The
risk to the CPO price is currently to the upside, in our view.
A tightening supply picture meets….
We expect the El Nino to wane in 2Q, but the impact on palm oil production will
be felt well into 2011, with risk of downside surprise, exacerbated by labour
shortages in Malaysia and a drop in fertilizer application in recent years, especially
in Indonesia. Production in Malaysia has been weak already. The ongoing surge in
soybean output from South America is a short-term damper, but soybean oil
prices should remain well supported, with soybean crushing expected to be held
back by a weak meal price, which determines soy profitability. We expect supply
of other edible oils to be sluggish on the whole.
….a robust demand backdrop
We remain upbeat on the global economy, not just for 2010, but also 2011.
Demand for palm and other edible oils should surprise to the upside, especially in
India and China, the key dynamos of consumption. Meanwhile, biodiesel has
become a permanent fixture, helping diversify demand. Demand is not just
growing rapidly, but has become increasingly inelastic to any downside moves in
crude oil, largely thanks to mandatory blending initiatives and subsidies. Upside in
crude oil remains a potent outlier for palm oil demand.
We raise target prices for all stocks under coverage; all Buy rated now
We have raised earnings and target prices for all plantation stocks under coverage
and, selectively, upgraded our recommendations, all as per the right hand side of
this page. Plantation stocks will continue to gain favour amid rising inflationary
expectations globally. Our preferred exposures are Astra Agro, KL Kepong and
Golden Agri for their sensitivity to the CPO price. Risks to our outlook for the CPO
price and plantation equities are a surge in soybean production in the US in 2H10,
a global economic double dip and significant US dollar strength.
This report changes ratings, price targets, and/or estimates for several
companies under coverage. For a detailed listing of these changes, see the
right-hand column page 1 and figure 68.
Table of Contents
Raising forecasts; get set for another up-cycle............................... 3
Raising our CPO price forecasts 10-17%..................................................................................3
Pay close attention to the outliers for 2010 (and beyond).........................................................6
What if supply disappoints and demand surprises positively?..................................................8
Greater volatility: Market needs to watch supply issues closely...............................................8
Longer-term outlook undeniably price positive .........................................................................9
Supply outlook................................................................................. 12
Sub-average growth for edible oil supplies in 2010 ................................................................12
Palm oil: we expect growth estimates to be cut ....................................................................14
El Nino impact is mixed; Borneo worst affected.....................................................................16
Emerging theme for Malaysia – labour shortages...................................................................21
Palm oil: Are Indonesia forecasts overstated? ........................................................................22
Soybeans: the bumper South American crop .........................................................................24
A record South American crop, augmenting the all-time biggest US crop..............................24
Demand outlook .............................................................................. 27
Demand from emerging markets to stay strong.....................................................................27
Biodiesel demand on the rise: inelastic to crude oil................................................................29
Sector outlook and valuation ......................................................... 32
We raise earnings and target prices .......................................................................................32
Changes to recommendations and views on companies .......................................................33
Sector valuation perspective...................................................................................................36
Key risks to our view and target prices ...................................................................................39
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