【出版时间及名称】:2010年4月全球石油开采设备行业研究报告
【作者】:摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】:pdf
【页数】:35
【目录或简介】:
fixtures ended the quarter strong, UDW demand is
on the rise and Obama opens up new territory for
offshore drilling. The number of international jackup
fixtures ended the quarter near its all-time-high. Last
week we saw five jackup fixtures, three of which were
previously idle rigs and one was for a newbuild. On the
deepwater side, Tsakos may acquire two uncontracted
newbuilds for $500m each after securing contracts for
the units according to an article on Bloomberg,
constructive from availability and asset value
perspectives. On Capitol Hill, President Obama plans to
open more of the coastal waters to oil and gas
exploration, and while it may take another five years
before we see additional rigs deployed, this is
constructive for the long-term sustainability of offshore
drilling. See pages 2 and 3 for details.
Heavy action in MENA. OPEC restarted $165 billion in
drilling projects, equivalent to ~5 million bpd gross
pumping capacity. Also, BP awarded the first contracts
in Iraq’s Rumaila oilfields – valued at $500 million – to
SLB, WFT and Daqing. Finally, Middle East Economic
Digest reported that Tecnicas Reunidas has been
selected by Saudi Aramco and ConocoPhillips for one of
the main contracts for the Yanbu refinery. See page 2 for
more details.
BHI and BJS shareholders approve pending $6.6
billion merger after receiving DoJ clearance to move
forward. The DoJ had raised concerns about overlap of
certain GoM businesses. As a result, BHI will be
required to divest two stimulation vessels (the HR
Hughes and Blue Ray) and certain sand control assets
in the GoM. We agree with BHI management that the
divestitures will not be material to the business or
financial performance of the combined company. We
expect the deal to close in early April. We reiterate our
positive views on the merger and believe BJS will be
accretive to BHI this year.
Table of Contents
Investment Perspective Page 2
Contract Drilling Markets Page 3
Jackup Dayrates: Historical and Forecast Page 6
Floater Dayrates: Historical and Forecast Page 7
Morgan Stanley Offshore Drilling Dayrates by Company Page 8
Expected Deliveries: Jackups and Floaters Page 9
US and International Rig Counts Page 10
Trading and Valuation Summary: Contract Drillers Page 11
Global Valuation and Ratings Summary Page 12
Trading and Valuation Summary: Oil Services and Drillers Page 13
Consensus Earnings Revisions and Short Interest Ratios Page 14
Morgan Stanley EPS Estimates vs. Consensus Page 15
Morgan Stanley Revenue Growth Projections by Area Page 17
Morgan Stanley EBIT Margins Projections by Area Page 18
Morgan Stanley Revenue & EBIT Estimates vs. Consensus Page 19
Consensus Outlook Page 23
Commodity Data and Global Economic Forecast Page 24
Newbuild Orderbook: Jackups and Floaters Page 26
Stocks Performance Review Page 28
Valuation Methodologies and Investment Risks Page 30