发帖
雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国计算机芯片行业研究报告
【作者】：Wells Fargo
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：100
【目录或简介】：
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Pulse Of Technology..................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Growth Projections ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Semiconductors............................................................................................................................................................................................ 9
Capital Spending And Capacity...........................................................................................................................................................12
Microprocessors...................................................................................................................................................................................18
Memory ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Taiwanese Monthly Semiconductor Sales ......................................................................................................................................... 37
End Markets........................................................................................................................................................................................ 40
Inventory .....................................................................................................................................................................................................41
Computers .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 52
Desktops ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 60
Notebooks.................................................................................................................................................................................... 63
Servers ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 66
Wireless Handsets...................................................................................................................................................................................... 73
Economic Data ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 79
Pulse Of Technology
• Semiconductors--demand remains solid. For the month of February worldwide semiconductor
sales reported by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) dropped 5% month-over-month,
following a 5% month-over-month decline in the month of January. The three-month rolling average of
semiconductor sales was down just 1% compared to January, which we consider to be better than normal
seasonality. Year-over-year the total semiconductor sales growth number was 55%, following 68% growth
in January and a better number than we expected. We believe that the January growth number was
boosted somewhat by the fact that January was shortened in Asia last year by the Chinese New Year falling
on January 26, 2009. Overall, we think the most recent data indicates ongoing firmness in semiconductor
demand. Microprocessor sales grew 63% year over year in February following an increase of 68% in
January. Microprocessor year-over-year growth paced above overall integrated circuit growth through
most of 2009 and appears to be continuing this trend so far into 2010. DRAM sales were up 163% year
over year in February, following growth of 177% in January. Although DRAM bit shipments declined 4%
month over month in February, with sales down 3%, commentary made by Micron on its February quarter
earnings call at the end of March suggests ongoing strength in DRAM demand through March and into the
calendar June quarter. We think that the particular strength in microprocessors and DRAM points to
computer hardware as being one of the strongest of the technology end markets at the moment. The ratio
of worldwide semiconductor equipment sales to semiconductor IC sales rose slightly in February, to 11.1%,
up from 10.5% in January. This remains low compared to the 15%-25% range typical of 1990 through
2007 and we expect a continuing increase in semiconductor capacity utilization as 2010 progresses.
• Computers--continuing signs of robust demand, significant new server products. Gartner’s
estimates from worldwide PC shipments in the December 2009 quarter indicate that clients’ PC shipments
(desktops and notebooks) exited 2009 with 22% year over year growth in the December 2009 quarter. We
think that easy comparisons should result in similar year-over-year growth numbers in the March 2010
and June 2010 quarters. Notebooks continue to be an important driver for the overall PC market.
Notebook growth was 36% year over year in the December quarter, according to Gartner. Even if we back
out netbooks, notebook growth is still about 26%. Micron reported sales of $1.96 billion in the February
quarter (up 13% qtr/qtr and up 97% yr/yr) helping confirm, we think, that computer end market demand
remains strong. Micron said that computer client-related sales (desktops, notebooks and netbooks) were
up 34% sequentially, server-related sales up 22%. Micron indicated that corporate PC demand gained
strength in the March quarter. Following HP’s and Dell’s healthy January quarter reports, Micron’s
February quarter results also showed evidence of a pickup in corporate computer hardware spending. We
believe that the corporate PC and server refresh cycle will gain momentum in 2010. In March Intel
launched its Nehalem-EX server processors for 4-way servers and Westmere-EP processors for 2-way
servers, and AMD its Magny-Cours chips for both 4-way and 2-way servers. These launches complete a
full refresh of x86 server products from both companies. The new server chips from both Intel and AMD
offer significant performance improvements (1.3x to 3.8x) over prior generation server chips. We think
that this will help stimulate the already robust demand for x86 servers this year.
• Wireless handsets--some positive mid-quarter updates from component makers. Handset
shipments increased 12% for the top five vendors in the December 2009 quarter, following 7% growth in
the prior quarter. This is higher than we expected and was boosted by Nokia’s 17% sequential growth in
the quarter. We do not know why Nokia achieved a sudden surge in handset shipments in the December
quarter, but we are guessing that component constraints may have resulted in some shipments in the
September quarter being deferred to the December quarter. The year-over-year comparison for the top
five handset makers moved into positive territory, up 9% from a decline of 6% in the September quarter.
Gartner estimates that the handset market as a whole grew 10% sequentially, which would put overall
market growth at 8% year over year in the December quarter, up from flattish trends in the September
quarter. The handset market is showing signs of stabilization and, perhaps, some amount of recovery. But,
in our view, what pickup there is in handset demand is still weaker than the recovery in PC demand. Even
so, in the month of March, a number of handset component vendors raised their March quarter guidance:
o Skyworks Solutions increased its March quarter sales guidance to the $230-$235 million range
(midpoint=down 5% sequentially and up 34% yr/yr) compared to prior expectations of roughly $225
million (down 8% sequentially and up 30% yr/yr).
o MediaTek increased its March 2010 sales expectations to 5%-10% sequential growth compared to
prior guidance of flat to 5% sequential growth.
o TI raised its March quarter revenue guidance to $3.07-$3.19 billion (midpoint=+4% sequentially),
compared to previous guidance of $2.95-$3.19 billion (midpoint=+2% sequentially). Although
京公网安备 11010802022788号
