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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月美国地铁行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：34
【目录或简介】：
Why Rent When Homes Are This Cheap?
■
Affordability improves, and remains the key to housing demand. Lower
mortgage rates (24 bps sequentially) and a 3% decline in home prices (only
slightly worse than the normal seasonal decline in 4Q) led to improved
affordability. We view affordability as the key driver of housing demand and
think that this will continue to help sales activity, especially at the low end of
the market where buyers focus on the buy versus rent calculation.
■
Monthly mortgage payment represents just 15.3% of income; far better
than 20% average (from ’91-’08). The monthly mortgage payment on the
median priced home represented 15.3% of the median family income in 4Q,
down slightly from 15.6% in 3Q and far below the 20% average from ’91-’08.
Affordability is at or better than historic averages in 49 of the top 50
homebuilding markets.
■
Sales increased in every state except for California. 49 of the 50 states
posted year-over-year increases in existing home sales in 4Q, up from 32
states in 3Q. The broad improvement in sales was largely driven by the
$8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit (which spurred activity ahead of the
original November 30th closing deadline before being extended) and the
overall attractive affordability due lower home prices and mortgage rates. Of
the key states, FL (+59% yr/yr), NV (+53%), and AZ (+31%) continued to
show solid improvement, while we saw the only decline in CA (-7%).
Washington, D.C. also remained strong and showed further signs of
stabilization (key for NVR, TOL and HOV), with existing home sales up 56%
yr/yr in 4Q and the median existing home prices up 4% yr/yr, consistent with
recent positive commentary in our Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents.
■
Expecting sharp increase in sales (closing) activity in 2Q/10; risk of
slowing in 3Q. We continue to expect strong sales activity in 2Q (driven by
the homebuyer tax credit), but then a slowing in 3Q.
■
Foreclosure backlog likely to limit upside to home prices over next
several years. We anticipate healthy demand for homes (subsequent to the
lull after the tax credit ends), but worry that the ample supply of foreclosures
effectively represents additional supply and will limit price appreciation.
■
Don’t mess with Texas. Houston (#1), Dallas (#2), and Austin (#5) were
three of the five largest markets for new construction in ’09 with the
Washington, DC metro (#3) and Phoenix (#4) rounding out the top five. 15%
of single-family home construction occurred in Texas, with Florida, North
Carolina, and California following behind with 6% each.
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