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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国大宗原材料行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：31
【目录或简介】：
Channel checks on demand. Based on Credit Suisse’s proprietary demand
survey, we see early signs of a potential soft patch in downstream demand
in 3Q, due to both seasonality and a high base in 2Q10. The sequential
softening in demand, while not a fundamental issue, will generate bumpy
margins on the path to recovery, in our view. The feedback from producers
as of early April suggests that: 1) the MoM trend for end-user forward order
books of finished goods appears to be softening, as the percentage of
respondents who saw a sequential improvement fell from 100% in March to
44% in April, mostly driven by seasonality and some due to an
extraordinarily high base in March; and 2) material demand is also seeing
signs of flat to down sequentially. The percentage of producers seeing
improving MoM demand is 0% for steel mills (down from 75% in March),
80% for cement producers (down from 100% in March) and 20% for coal
producers (down from 50% in March).
■ Steel – rising steel prices with cost, expect bumpy 2H10.
■ Coal – stable price, upside risk into summer.
■ Cement – seasonal hike remains soft.
■ Aluminium – domestic inventory caps SHFE prices.
■ Alumina – improving demand.
Table of contents
Credit Suisse commodity price forecasts 4
Monthly theme – bumpy road to recovery 5
CS proprietary monthly survey on demand 5
Downstream demand snapshots 8
Steel – rising steel prices with cost, expect bumpy 2H10 10
Asset-based valuation – steel 11
Valuation of peers – steel 12
Share performance – steel 13
Coal – Stable price, upside risk into summer 14
Asset-based valuation – coal 15
Valuation of peers – coal 16
Share performance – coal 17
Cement – seasonal hike remains soft 18
Asset-based valuation – cement 19
Valuation of peers – cement 20
Share performance – cement 21
Aluminium – domestic inventory caps SHFE prices 22
Alumina – improving demand 23
Copper – solid demand 24
Other non-ferrous metals 25
Asset-based valuation – gold 26
Valuation of peers – non-ferrous metals 27
Share performance – non-ferrous metals 28
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