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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国石油开采服务行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：126
【目录或简介】：
We are initiating coverage of the Oil Services sector with a longer term
bullish stance, seeing a key inflection point for outperformance developing
by year-end. While our enthusiasm for offshore drillers is tempered, large
cap service valuation is compelling, and we recommend that investors
accumulate positions selectively through the end of the year. With a
number of trends firmly in place, we believe the stage is set for
outperformance hinging on improving global oil demand and higher
upstream spending.
• Outperformance likely driven by fundamentals. We believe
increasing international activity driven by improving oil fundamentals
and supportive oil prices will signal a true inflection point for oil
services outperformance later this year. For now, we tilt toward North
America with higher activity and pricing from gas shales.
• Global upstream spending starting to recover. Global spending
growth of 14% in 2010 translates into 11% revenue growth for large cap
services. Our EPS estimates are in line with consensus in 2010 but 6%
above in 2011 (ex-WFT), driven by higher international spending and
better pricing as service and equipment capacity tightens.
• Technology and execution will differentiate. Technology is at the
forefront of several key industry trends: unconventional resources,
deepwater, and reservoir optimization. In the wake of industry
consolidation, we believe market share will be based on performance and
execution as each player now possesses comprehensive product lines.
• Trading well below fair value. Using normalized valuation metrics,
large cap services is trading considerably below fair value, with even
more upside potential if return metrics prove to be structurally higher this
cycle.
• Weighted toward NA now, international later. Despite weak natural
gas fundamentals, Halliburton is our top pick for its higher North
American exposure, followed by Schlumberger, both at Overweight.
Once international spending starts to ramp up in late 2010, we would
expect Schlumberger to benefit most. We rate Baker Hughes Neutral in
light of higher execution risk with a corporate reorganization and
integration of BJS. Lastly, Weatherford is rated Underweight as we
question the quality of last cycle’s growth combined with concerns about
cash flow, poor returns, and higher country risk.
Table of Contents
Key Investment Points .............................................................3
Investment Risks......................................................................6
Setting the Stage for Outperformance....................................7
Learning from Past Cycles ....................................................11
Product Lines & Market Share ..............................................37
Oil Services Sector: Company Analysis...............................42
Schlumberger .........................................................................52
Halliburton ..............................................................................66
Baker Hughes .........................................................................78
Weatherford Int'l .....................................................................88
Appendices
Appendix I: Global Oil Demand, Key Economic Indicators 98
Appendix II: Natural Gas Fundamentals.............................104
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