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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月美国石油开采行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：310
【目录或简介】：
A Comprehensive Review of the E&Ps in 2009
■
E&Ps Shined in 2009. Despite weak natural gas prices, the U.S. E&Ps
were stock market winners in 2009, rising an average 47% versus a 23%
gain in the S&P 500. In addition to the recovery in global markets, the E&Ps
tracked surging WTI oil prices that rose from a low of $33.98 per Bbl on
2/12/09 to as high as $81.37 per Bbl on 10/21/09. Relative to the lows set on
3/2/09, the E&Ps rose 97% in 2009 versus 59% for the S&P 500 as the
sector attracted funds seeking inflation hedging amid a weakening U.S.
dollar. Further, improving credit markets helped improve liquidity, as E&Ps
were able to term out bank debt maturities.
■
‘Oily’ Shares Flourished. Within the sector, oil-focused E&Ps were strong
performers, rising 74% in 2009 versus a 44% gain posted by the gasfocused
producers. WTI crude oil prices rose 78% for the year versus a 1%
decline in NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas prices. However, the appetite for
unconventional gas resources remained strong in 2009 with natural gas
shale focused E&Ps rising 62% and up 85% from the March trough.
■
2009 Natural Gas Supply Held Up Despite Activity Cuts. The North
American natural gas markets were substantially oversupplied amid sharp
industrial demand losses and persistent U.S. production. Despite a severe
drop in drilling activity that saw the U.S. natural gas rig count decline 57%
from 2008 peaks, the much-anticipated 2009 output declines never surfaced.
In fact, U.S. Lower 48 production exited 2009 just 2% (1.5 Bcf/d) below the
February 2009 peak. Storage rose to record levels in both the U.S. and
Canada on a loose supply/demand balance.
■
Producers Rushing to Add Liquids. Producers have been rapidly trying to
add to oil and liquids positions to expand margins. A large portion of 2009
and 2010 budgets have focused on liquids-rich plays such as the Eagle Ford
and the Granite Wash. In recent months, we have seen a ‘race’ to add
liquids exposure through mature asset purchases and leasing of acreage
prospective for oil shales and liquids-rich gas shale/tight sands. Producers
are trying to combat low gas prices, a record high oil-to-gas ratio (22.0x),
high leverage, and hedge roll-offs.
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