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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月澳大利亚能源行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：45
【目录或简介】：
Becoming less bearish oil in 2010: US$65/bbl to US$71/bbl
This report changes profit estimates and price targets for several companies. For a
detailed listing of these changes, please refer to Page 3.
Deutsche Bank AG/Sydney
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Forecast Change
Top picks
Santos (STO.AX),AUD14.71 Buy
Origin Energy (ORG.AX),AUD16.64 Buy
Oil Search (OSH.AX),AUD5.96 Buy
Companies featured
Woodside Petroleum (WPL.AX),AUD47.00 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 23.3 32.5 14.9
Div yield (%) 2.6 1.8 3.3
Price/book (x) 3.7 3.0 2.7
Origin Energy (ORG.AX),AUD16.64 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 25.7 23.6 21.1
Div yield (%) 4.9 3.0 3.0
Price/book (x) 1.3 1.4 1.3
Santos (STO.AX),AUD14.71 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 49.1 50.2 38.7
Div yield (%) 2.8 2.7 2.7
Price/book (x) 1.7 1.8 1.8
Oil Search (OSH.AX),AUD5.96 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 52.7 82.7 61.9
Div yield (%) 0.9 0.7 0.7
Price/book (x) 2.4 2.7 2.6
Arrow Energy (AOE.AX),AUD5.06 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) – – –
Div yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Price/book (x) 2.2 3.2 3.2
Caltex (CTX.AX),AUD11.07 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 8.4 10.7 8.6
Div yield (%) 0.0 4.3 5.4
Price/book (x) 0.9 1.0 0.9
AWE Ltd (AWE.AX),AUD2.73 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 11.0 63.2 52.1
Div yield (%) 3.7 0.0 0.0
Price/book (x) 1.2 1.3 1.3
Nexus Energy Ltd (NXS.AX),AUD0.27 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) – 8.4 41.2
Div yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Price/book (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5
AED Oil Ltd (AED.AX),AUD0.66 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) – – –
Div yield (%) 15.5 0.0 0.0
Price/book (x) 0.7 0.7 0.8
Global Markets Research Company
Deutsche Bank’s economic team has increased its CY10 world GDP forecasts to
4.3%, up from the previous estimate of 3.5% three months ago, and a strong
increase on 2009 (-1.3%). We believe world GDP increases will drive higher oil
demand in 2010. We forecast a 1.4mmb/d average increase in demand for oil
across 2010. However, non-OPEC production continues to surprise on the upside,
with c.1.0mmb/d of the incremental demand forecast to come from non-OPEC oil
sources. Inventories have fallen from record highs, but remain above long term
averages. Furthermore, we see several key economic risks for the balance of 2010
including Chinese currency policies, sovereign debt issues led by Greece, bond
market crises, and heavy-handed financial markets reform.
While oil historically outperforms year-beginning consensus by around 30%, high
inventories, strong production and economic risks ensure we are happy to remain
5-10% below consensus for both 2010 and 2011. We have increased our CY10
forecast for WTI to US$71/bbl (prev US$65/bbl), incorporating the mark-to-market
for 1Q10, where prices averages US$78.85/bbl. Our CY11 forecast of US$80/bbl
for oil remains unchanged as does our CY12 forecast of US$85/bbl.
Our top picks remain Santos, Origin and Oil Search – RATINGS UNCHANGED
Our basket of preferred exposures includes Origin Energy (Buy) for its strong
earnings growth profile and LNG optionality, Santos (Buy) for its leverage to the
game changing GLNG project, and Oil Search (Buy) given discount to valuation
and exposure to the sector leading PNG LNG project. We also favour Caltex (Buy)
as its earnings should benefit from continued strength in regional refiner margins.
Margins have been aided by industry discipline driving refinery shut-ins. Among
smaller names we prefer AWE (Buy) but note the company’s growth is highly
dependent on drilling success in the current exploration program. We remain
neutral Woodside (Hold). While we recognize forward P/Es look attractive, the
company is entering a critical construction phase at Pluto-1, and company
continues to face a challenging outlook for its growth projects.
Longer term view unchanged
We have maintained our longer term oil price assumptions at US$80/bbl in CY11,
US$85/bbl in CY12 and US$90/bbl in CY13. Our view remains that global economic
recovery will drive strong incremental demand.
Sector valuation and risks
We value the sector using DCF analysis to estimate a Net Asset Value (NAV) using
DB oil price and fx assumptions. In addition, we also assess the NAV using the
crude oil forward curve. We set our price targets by taking the mid point of the
two NAVs and add a risk adjusted exploration potential for those we can identify.
Sector risks include oil price volatility, production outages, delays or capex
increases for major projects.
Table of Contents
Earnings and valuation implications................................................ 4
Commodity pricing outlook.............................................................. 5
Exchange rate and electricity prices .............................................. 25
Woodside Petroleum....................................................................... 26
Origin Energy ................................................................................... 28
Santos............................................................................................... 30
Oil Search......................................................................................... 32
Arrow Energy ................................................................................... 34
Caltex................................................................................................ 36
AWE .................................................................................................. 38
Nexus Energy................................................................................... 40
AED Oil ............................................................................................. 42
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