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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月澳大利亚能源行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：42
【目录或简介】：
We are relatively bearish on the outlook for Asian LNG markets. We see
a race to capture remaining demand in the 2015 timeframe, with the losers
suffering project deferrals. We see GLNG, APLNG, Wheatstone, and
Ichthys as best placed to secure customers in the next 6 months. Deals
struck by PetroChina and Tokyo Gas for CSG LNG projects have
legitimised the concept and we believe that more deals will follow in the
space. We do not think Browse and Sunrise are at a mature enough stage
currently to secure HOAs and timely exploration success is required for
Pluto-2 to meet its target FID date at end CY10. Recent rhetoric from
East Timor indicates that the stalemate regarding the location of the
downstream element of the Sunrise project is no closer to being resolved.
• Our recommendations across the large cap oil plays favour companies
with relatively mature projects. On this basis our sector preference is
Santos which offers the most meaningful upside via its GLNG project.
We think that Santos largely has a single train project ready to approve.
The only concern we have is whether the market will be satisfied with a
single train approval with a look through to a second train approval in
1H11. We are Overweight OSH also, as a low risk exposure to the Asian
LNG market with upside from a third train. We are Neutral Woodside.
We think that the current share price contains a fair premium over and
above our DCF valuation inclusive of Pluto-2 (at US$75/bbl and
0.75US$/A$ LT) to account for the option value associated with the
Browse and Sunrise resources.
• We have downgraded our AWE recommendation from Overweight to
Neutral. While the risk profile of the Hoki-1 well was always high, the
pay off was potentially very large also - we estimated ~A$6-8/shr success
case. Hoki-1 accounted for ~2/3 of our EMV calculation, removing the
prospect significantly lessens the probability weighted value on offer from
AWE’s New Zealand, Indonesia and Yemen exploration programs. At
US$75/bbl LT and 0.75 US$/A$ LT we value AWE’s base business at
A$2.25/shr and the EMV of exploration at A$0.55/shr for a total of
A$2.80/shr. On this basis we see AWE as fair value only. AWE’s Tuatara
prospect is of similar materiality (~A$4/shr success case) to the Hoki
prospect but we see it as higher risk than Hoki because it is in an
unexplored region of the Taranaki Basin.
Investment theses
Woodside – Maintain Neutral
We remain quite bearish on the outlook for Asian LNG markets. We see a race to
capture remaining demand in the 2015 timeframe, and the losers will suffer project
delays. We see GLNG, APLNG, Wheatstone, and Ichthys as best placed to secure
customers in the next 6 months. Deals struck by PetroChina and Tokyo Gas for CSG
LNG projects have legitimised the concept and we believe that more deals will
follow in the space. We do not think Browse and Sunrise are at a mature enough
stage currently to secure HOAs and timely exploration success is required for Pluto-2
to meet its target FID date at end CY10. Recent rhetoric from East Timor indicates
that the stalemate regarding the location of the downstream element of the Sunrise
project is no closer to being resolved.
WPL is in a race to find gas in order to meet its Pluto-2 FID target of end CY10.
Initial results have been encouraging but we believe that WPL is still short of the 3.8-
4tcf that it requires for the expansion project. Our DCF valuation of WPL including
the existing business, Pluto-1 and Pluto-2 (assuming 60% WPL equity gas) is
A$40.34/shr (at US$75/bbl LT and 0.75US$/A$) or A$45.48 (at US$90/bbl LT).
While there are risks to a timely approval of the project (most notably defining the
resource) we think that the balance of probabilities suggests that WPL will eventually
define the resource, market the gas and FID the project. Given the maturity status of
the Browse and Sunrise projects we do not think the market should be paying much
for either of these growth options. We think that the current share price contains a
fair premium over and above our DCF valuation inclusive of Pluto-2 (at US$75/bbl
and 0.75US$/A$ LT) to account for the option value associated with the Browse and
Sunrise resources. We remain Neutral.
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