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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月日本基因制药行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：48
【目录或简介】：
Generic drugs still in growth phase: The generic drug market continues to
grow thanks to modifications to prescription forms in 2008, an increasing
numbers of hospitals adopting the DPC system, and blockbuster drugs coming
off patent. Multilevel implementation of measures promoting generics in
FY2010 include changes to standards governing calculation of incentives for
dispensing generics, new standards for awarding incentives to DPC hospitals,
changes in medical care responsibilities at hospitals, and wider notification by
the Japan Health Insurance Association of disparities between branded and
generic drug prices. We think annual market growth will stay close to 10%
until FY2012, when we expect generics’ share of the market to reach 25%.
Thus we are bullish on generic drug makers because they are underpinned by a
positive macro environment. We think their performance will continue to
contrast with that of the leading innovative drug companies facing structural
issues such as heavy weightings of generically available off-patent drugs in
Japan and loss of patent protection on top products overseas.
• Little change in competitive situation despite stream of foreign/non-drug
industry entrants: Teva, the world’s top generic drug maker, formed a
strategic partnership with Kowa Pharmaceutical in 2008 and thereafter
acquired a majority stake in Taisho Yakuhin in January 2010. Next, Daiichi
Sankyo set up Daiichi Sankyo Espha in its first serious move into generics in
Japan. Meanwhile JCR/Kissei won approval in January for an EPO biosimilar
scheduled for launch this spring, with biosimilar initiatives elsewhere also
now gaining momentum. One non-drug industry entrant is FujiFilm Holdings,
but we see little change in the superior positioning of specialist makers in
terms of production systems, sales-force hiring, wholesaler dealings,
reputation in hospitals, or number of products. We think acquisitions by
foreign firms eyeing Japanese companies for these advantages will gradually
gain momentum, thereby triggering a rerating of sector valuations.
• Initiating coverage of Nichi-Iko (4541) at Overweight with ¥3,600 price
target: Nichi-Iko is a growth-oriented drug maker that deals mainly with top
wholesalers in the generic drug market and is well placed to benefit from
prescription growth in generics at dispensing pharmacies. We forecast sales
and profits will grow by 14.1% and 26.1%, respectively, over the three years
from FY2009, and initiate coverage at Overweight with a ¥3,600 price target.
We raise our price target on Sawai Pharmaceutical from ¥7,600 to ¥9,000 and
adjust our target on Towa Pharmaceutical from ¥5,700 to ¥5,500, but maintain
Overweight ratings on both stocks. Our ranking of these three stocks based on
upside potential to our price targets is Sawai, Nichi-Iko, and Towa, in that
order. We derive our April 2011 price targets for all three stocks by applying a
P/E of 18x (based on historical average P/E for US generics companies and 1-
year forward P/E for Indian companies), to our FY2011 forecasts. Risks to our
price targets include changes in the NHI drug pricing system.
Table of Contents
We Remain Bullish on the Generics Subsector ...........................................................3
Individual Stocks’ Investment Ratings and Valuations ...............................................4
We Forecast Substantial Growth in the Generics Market ............................................8
New Premium Structure Likely to Benefit Sawai First, Nichi-Iko Second, Towa
Third ............................................................................................................................9
Use of Generic Drugs Is Growing at DPC Hospitals .................................................14
Insurance Associations Become Part of the Effort; Creating Demand from the
Bottom Up .................................................................................................................16
Expectations of Further Industry Realignment from New-Drug, Foreign, and Non-
Drug Industry Entrants...............................................................................................17
Some Upcoming Releases Likely to Become Blockbusters ......................................20
Share Price Performance............................................................................................21
Risks and Factors That May Inhibit Growth of the Generic Drug Market.................22
Nichi-Iko Pharmaceutical (4541)............................................23
Guidance Looks Conservative; Growth Remains Firm .............................................23
Investment Opinion and Valuation ............................................................................24
Bright Medium-Term Outlook, but Medium-Term Targets Require Revision..........26
Seeking Corporate Expansion via Complementary Acquisitions, Also Strengthening
Production System.....................................................................................................31
Company Profile ........................................................................................................33
Towa Pharmaceutical (4553) .................................................36
We Expect Profits to Enter a Slow Period Because Of Higher Depreciation Costs...36
We Expect Solid Results to Continue, but Depreciation Will Be a Growing Burden37
Sawai Pharmaceutical (4555) ................................................40
Sales to Dispensing Pharmacies through Wholesalers Continue to Grow Rapidly ...40
Operating Margin to Continue Improving .................................................................41
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