2010年4月日本连锁百货行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月日本连锁行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：31
        【目录或简介】：

.Initiate on Isetan Mitsukoshi /
Takashimaya: Near-term
Earnings Recovery in Price
Initiating coverage at EW for Isetan Mitsukoshi
Holdings and Takashimaya: We expect OP in F3/11
(F2/11) to rise 3.3-fold for Isetan Mitsukoshi and 80% for
Takashimaya, factoring for the profit gearing resulting
from sales recovery (same-store sales up 1-2%) in 2H
and cost reductions (already planned). But stock prices
have risen in 2010 by 25% for Isetan Mitsukoshi and 34%
for Takashimaya, already reflecting earnings recovery
expectations. With stocks no longer significantly
undervalued even on our bullish forecasts, we believe
near-term earnings expectations have been discounted.
Price targets: ¥1,200 for Isetan Mitsukoshi and ¥820 for
Takashimaya, based on F3/11 earnings and target P/B
derived from regression analysis of the close P/B and
ROE correlations (79-85%). Target P/B is 0.9x for Isetan
Mitsukoshi (excluding reverse goodwill from BPS) and
1x for Takashimaya.
Scenario of even stronger profit recovery from CPI
improvement (bull case): CPI recovery feeds directly
into a pickup in sales and gross margins for department
stores. This implies potential for upside to our forecasts,
depending on sales recovery. Bull case fair value, if 2H
same-store sales rise 2-3% YoY, coming in 1% ahead of
our assumptions, is ¥1,320 (P/B 1x) for Isetan
Mitsukoshi and ¥900 (P/B 1.1x) for Takashimaya.
Catalysts ahead: Sales trend from June, when YoY
hurdles become easier. Given the economic uncertainty,
we expect both companies to guide for flat profits in the
F3/11 (F2/11) term (announcements in April-May). A
sell-off in reaction to weak guidance would create an
investment opportunity, in our view.
In-Line industry view – prefer Seven & i on macro/
micro leverage: Seven & i is our top retail stock pick on
a long-term view. With near-term earnings recovery in
the price plus structural issues of store surplus and low
profitability, it is hard to recommend department stores
long term, but we see short-term trading opportunities as
profit gearing accelerates.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 百货行业 Expectations 日本 研究报告 行业 连锁

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