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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月印尼银行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：33
【目录或简介】：
Concerns unjustified: With some Indonesian banking stocks trading at the
higher end of their historical range, investors often want to know whether the
valuations and earnings expectations for these stocks are stretched. Our
study found no such evidence and we deem the current valuations and
earnings expectations for Indonesian banking stocks to be very modest.
■
Modest expectations: We employ consensus estimates into Gordon’s
growth model and find that the risk free rate implied by the current share
prices is 8.23-9.61%, higher than the current five-year Indonesia government
bond yield of 8.13%. In addition, consensus estimates remain 9-16% below
our already modest earnings forecasts. Our FY10E loan growth, PPOP
growth and credit costs are in line with the historical average; very modest
assumptions, in our view, given the rosy outlook for Indonesia’s economy.
We find no evidence that the valuations and earnings expectations implied
by the current share prices are demanding, as these are built based on
reasonable valuations and very modest earnings expectations.
■
Room for more upside: We see room for potential upside in Indonesian
banking stocks from: 1) potential consensus earnings upgrades and 2)
potential rerating, should Indonesian government bond yield improve from its
current level. In the Indonesian banking sector, we like (in our order of
preference): BMRI, BBRI, BDMN, BBCA, PNBN and BBNI. We increase our
target price for BBCA (from Rp5,300 to Rp6,300), BBRI (from Rp9,600 to
Rp11,000), BMRI (from Rp5,900 to Rp6,900), BDMN (from Rp6,100 to
Rp6,700), BBNI (from Rp1,680 to Rp1,925) and PNBN (from Rp900 to
Rp1,000).
More attractive than meets the eye
Investors often want to know whether the current valuations and earnings expectations of
Indonesian banking stocks are stretched. Our study shows that the valuations implied by
the current share prices of Indonesian banking stocks are reasonable and earnings
expectations remain modest. We found no evidence indicating stretched valuations or
earnings expectations for the Indonesian banks under our coverage.
Expectations remain modest
To examine whether the current valuations of Indonesian banking stocks are stretched, we
use consensus estimates to derive the current market implied discount rate using
Gordon’s growth model. We find that the current share prices of Indonesian banking
stocks imply a risk free rate of 8.2-9.6%, which we believe is justifiable, given the current
five-year Indonesian government bond yield of 8.13%. We also believe that consensus
earnings estimates remain undemanding and 9-16% below our already modest estimates.
Our estimates assume: 1) a 23.9% FY10E loan growth, in line with the historical average,
and implies 1.05x loan growth to nominal GDP growth multiple, well below the historical
average of 1.22x, 2) a 2010E PPOP growth of 16.3%, in line with the historical average, 3)
a 5% YoY 2010E NPL drop, versus more than 20% YoY NPL drop the last time Indonesia
achieved 5.5-6.5% real GDP growth, 4) 199 bp credit costs, in line with the historical
average and, 5) a 184% 2010E provision coverage, versus the historical average of 130%.
Thus, we believe that the valuations and earnings expectations implied by the current
share price level for Indonesian banking stocks are not stretched and in fact are modest.
In fact, we see potential for future consensus earnings upgrades and further rerating,
should Indonesia government bond yield improve further.
We increase our FY10E-FY12E earning estimates for BMRI by 0.4%-0.6% and PNBN by
3.5%-4.6% and reduce our FY10E-FY12E earning estimates for BBCA by 2%, BBRI by
1.6%-1.7% and BBNI by 0.4%-3%. We tweak down our FY10E earning estimates for
BDMN by 1.6% and tweak up our FY11E-FY12E earning estimates by 1.3%-2.7%.
Life after the global financial crisis
We see a robust FY10E in Indonesia’s banking system, with loan growth expected to
recover from 12.4% in FY09 to 23.9% in FY10E and 2010E NIM to remain relatively stable
at 6.8%. We expect a 2010E earnings growth of 43.7% on average for the six Indonesian
banks under our coverage, driven largely by lower 2010E credit costs, with an average
2010E PPOP growth of 16.3%, given soft FY09 loan growth. The stronger FY10E and
FY11E loan growth would reflect in a 22.9% growth in FY11E PPOP. We believe that
Indonesia’s banking system possesses sufficient capacity (in terms of tier-one ratio, CAR
and LDR) to sustain loan growth above 20% in the medium term, without jeopardising
asset quality. In fact, we expect 2010E NPL ratio to drop 40 bp, with 2010E credit costs
falling 86%, while average 2010E provision coverage staying above 180%.
Room for more upside
We see two main potential upside for Indonesian banking stocks. First, we believe that our
estimates remain modest and see potential upside from the current level. Our estimates
are 8-15% above that of consensus and thus we see potential consensus earnings
upgrades ahead. Second, we see further rerating potential, should Indonesian government
bond yield improve further. Share prices of Indonesian banking stocks are highly
correlated with the country’s government bond yield (60-82% correlation). The high
correlation is largely driven by the fact that government bond yield reflects the country’s
risk free rate, one of the key inputs for valuing banking stocks based on Gordon’s growth
model. Net net, we remain positive on Indonesia banks sector and we like (in our order of
preference): BMRI, BBRI, BDMN, BBCA, PNBN and BBNI.
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