2010年4月法国银行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月法国银行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：38
        【目录或简介】：
We’ve updated our calculations to
reflect our new expectations from Basel
3 with the result that we believe capital
fears are overdone
 Credit risk could also provide a positive
surprise. With falling gross NPL
formation we expect impairments in
2010 to come in materially lower than
previously anticipated
 Our forecasts rise and now stand
comfortably above consensus. Price
targets move accordingly. We raise our
rating on Natixis to OW(V) from N(V)
Risk and regulation
In absolute terms French bank valuations are undemanding;
for 2010e price-tangible books hover at or just over 1x,
normalised PE ratings are in the mid-single digits and
Operating profit multiples are sub-4x. We believe two fears
are primarily responsible for holding back valuations:
regulatory issues and concerns on credit risk. But on both
counts we expect positive surprises in 2010.
First, based on our conversations with industry participants,
we’ve produced ‘realistic’ estimates for Basel 3 Tier 1 ratios.
And on our analysis we believe capital fears are materially
over-done. Indeed we believe Basel 3’s changes to liquidity
rules might be the bigger threat, but here the likely 5-10 year
implementation timetable should ease the pain, in our view.
Second, on risk, our top-down analysis of gross NPL
formation suggests bad debt charges could come in sharply
lower (35%) than in 2009. This is only partially reflected in
our bottom-up impairment forecasts, hence we believe our
already above-consensus EPS estimates could rise further as
the year progresses.
We believe all four French banks are undervalued in
absolute terms (the basis of the HSBC ratings system).
Natixis therefore moves to OW(V) from Neutral(V), joining
our existing positive calls on BNP, CASA and Socgen. We
also raise our target prices on BNP, Socgen and Natixis.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 银行业 Conversation 研究报告 银行业 法国

我明年初就要到法國去交換了
希望我可以藉著讀這些報告了解產業
然後可以拿到實習機會

ddddddddddddddd

疯了，这个价格。

小数点前移5位还可以

iqxd 发表于 2011-4-25 20:58
小数点前移5位还可以

对穷人来说还是前移六位取整吧。