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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月韩国银行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：28
【目录或简介】：
M&A theme adds upside potential to our Buy calls on KB and Shinhan
We think M&A in the Korean banking sector, led by privatization of Woori, would
benefit the sector due to reduced competition. Under our M&A scenarios, we
believe Korean bank M&A would add additional upside potential to our Buy calls
on KB FG (from potential M&A with KEB) and Shinhan FG, which we think would
benefit from an improving operating environment if the sectoral landscape
changes. KB and Shinhan remain our top picks in the sector.
Deutsche Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Special Report
Top picks
KB FG (105560.KS),KRW53,600.00 Buy
Shinhan FG (055550.KS),KRW47,450.00 Buy
Companies featured
KEB (004940.KS),KRW13,900.00 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 7.4 9.4 8.5
Div yield (%) 5.0 2.2 2.2
Price/book (x) 1.2 1.0 0.9
Daegu Bank (005270.KS),KRW15,250.00 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 9.4 6.6 6.0
Div yield (%) 1.3 4.9 5.2
Price/book (x) 1.3 1.0 0.9
Busan Bank (005280.KS),KRW11,900.00 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 7.5 7.4 6.5
Div yield (%) 1.6 4.5 4.6
Price/book (x) 1.2 1.0 0.9
IBK (024110.KS),KRW14,500.00 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 9.6 6.6 5.8
Div yield (%) 2.1 2.4 2.8
Price/book (x) 0.9 0.9 0.8
Woori FH (053000.KS),KRW17,250.00 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 9.9 6.9 7.0
Div yield (%) 1.0 1.2 1.2
Price/book (x) 0.8 0.9 0.8
Shinhan FG (055550.KS),KRW47,450.00 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 16.6 9.8 8.1
Div yield (%) 1.1 1.5 1.9
Price/book (x) 1.2 1.2 1.0
Hana FG (086790.KS),KRW34,950.00 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) 15.8 26.7 8.2
Div yield (%) 0.6 0.3 1.7
Price/book (x) 0.4 0.8 0.7
KB FG (105560.KS),KRW53,600.00 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 30.0 8.5 6.6
Div yield (%) 0.5 2.8 3.7
Price/book (x) 1.1 0.9 0.9
Global Markets Research Company
Fiscal deficit leading government to sell its shares
We believe the Korean government’s weakening fiscal health is the main reason
for its announcement on 16 December 2009 that it aims to privatize Woori FH in
2010. To support the economy, the government’s fiscal expenditure in 2009
expanded to W273tr from W239tr in 2008, rising 14% YoY, and it looks likely to
remain high in 2010. In an effort to restore fiscal balance, the government is
planning to sell its stakes in Woori, Hyundai E&C, and Hynix, among others this
year.
Due to reduced competition, M&A would be good for the sector
We believe consolidation would be positive for the sector, as it would reduce the
number of rivals within the banking business. We believe better pricing power
over loans/deposits would help bank NIM, and more rational lending behavior
would lower credit cost and reduce earnings volatility. Although we expect cost
savings to occur from M&A, we believe it would take a long time to achieve, as an
agreement with the labor union would first have to be made.
We think a merger between Hana FG and Woori FH looks more feasible
We believe a potential merger between KB FG and Woori FH would not be easy to
accomplish as a merger would make the combined company the largest financial
institution in Korea by far, raising concerns about moral hazards. With few choices
left other than a merger, we believe Hana is the more feasible candidate for the
consolidation of Woori. In that event, KB may continue to pursue KEB.
Bank M&A potential offers three themes for investors to consider, we think
We think bank M&A in Korea offers three themes to consider, in addition to
fundamental issues: 1) upside potential for KB if directly involved in M&A, 2)
upside potential for Woori if privatization goes ahead; and 3) upside potential for
Shinhan from a potentially better operating environment during the sector
landscape change. We continue to recommend KB and Shinhan as our top picks
on as we believe earnings are bottoming out and valuations look attractive. We
also maintain our Buy rating on Woori, although recent strong performance makes
it less attractive than KB and Shinhan.
Valuation and risks
We derive our target prices using the Gordon growth model, assuming 9-14%
ROEs, 9-12% COEs and 2% terminal growth rate. Upside risks include potential
rate hikes and M&A activity, while downside risks could be unexpected additional
losses from further corporate restructuring activities. (See page 23 for details.)
Table of Contents
Why M&A now?................................................................................. 3
Key points ................................................................................................................................3
Renewed interest in potential M&A in Korean banks................................................................3
Government efforts to improve fiscal health.............................................................................3
Plans to sell Woori, Hyundai E&C, Hynix, DSME, Daewoo International ..................................4
Would M&A be good for the sector? ............................................... 5
Key points ................................................................................................................................5
Key possible players in potential M&A could be KB FG, Hana FG and the Korean government5
Reduced competition would be the biggest benefit for banks .................................................6
Limited cost benefits ................................................................................................................7
What are the likely scenarios?.......................................................... 9
Key points ................................................................................................................................9
Merger seems the most likely scenario for privatization of Woori............................................9
We think Hana FG is the most feasible candidate for a merger with Woori .............................9
M&A scenario analysis I: KB FG acquires KEB........................................................................13
M&A scenario analysis II: Woori FH merges with Hana FG....................................................17
We see three M&A themes to consider......................................... 20
Key points ...............................................................................................................................20
Three M&A themes to consider for Korea banks....................................................................20
Our top picks remain KB and Shinhan.....................................................................................21
Earnings revision for KB FG ....................................................................................................22
Valuation and risks ..................................................................................................................23
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