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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月南非铂金行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：40
【目录或简介】：
We revise our metal price forecasts, provide an
overview of the SA platinum industry and initiate/
assume coverage on the key names. We prefer IMP
(OW, R240 price target) for its balance of relatively
attractive valuation and defensiveness (industry leading
cash costs, robust balance sheet and discounted
Zimbabwe risk). We also assume coverage of AMS at
EW (R920); and initiate on Northam at UW (R44). South
African platinum equities offer a unique play on the
themes of emerging market fund flow and intensive
commodity growth, developed market restocking – and
a natural hedge against S. African specific risk (region
specific operating/political risk). We believe this is in the
price – shares are discounting 2012e earnings
estimates – and take a neutral view on the sector.
What's new: we raise our platinum forecasts 6-14%
from 2010-12, our LT forecast 61% and Pd/Rh prices
more substantially. We believe these upgrades and
material rand weakness is largely discounted on a 2012
view. Investor positioning in the metals is extended
(2.5moz in Pt ETFs and Nymex) but continued investor
appetite is required to sustain current prices near term.
Where we differ: we believe that widely divergent views
of the attractiveness of the sector exist (reflected in
shifting share register from SA to US): (1) value
investors – focused on current depressed profitability
and cash flow, and impact of rand strength, vs. (2)
thematic investors – rising risk appetite and attracted to
unique sector themes. The balance of risk hangs finely
on risk appetite vs. strength of rand. We foresee an
extended period of range trading.
What’s next: reporting periods are the next projected
catalysts – while we expect to see earnings recovery, we
expect disappointment to consensus (which we attribute
to the impact of rand strength).
Contents
Investment Case.............................................................................................. 3
Summary & Conclusions................................................................................................3
Valuation methodology...................................................................................................4
Sensitivity summary, and consensus .............................................................................6
Changing share register .................................................................................................6
Commodity comment...................................................................................... 7
Platinum .........................................................................................................................7
Palladium .....................................................................................................................10
Rhodium.......................................................................................................................12
Revenue contributors to SA miners..............................................................................13
Company comparison and competitiveness.............................................. 15
Summary......................................................................................................................15
Cost curve (and operating summary) ...........................................................................15
EPS, share price, commodity price ..............................................................................18
Valuation comparison and sensitivity analysis ......................................... 20
P/E and P/E bands.......................................................................................................21
Sensitivity analysis (P/E and NPV)...............................................................................23
Share price vs. rand commodity basket price...............................................................23
Risk-Reward Snapshot: Anglo Platinum (AMS, R818, EW, PT R920) ...... 25
Investment Thesis ........................................................................................................25
Risk-Reward Snapshot: Impala Platinum (IMP, R212, OW, PT R240) ...... 30
Investment Thesis ........................................................................................................30
Risk-Reward Snapshot: Northam Platinum (NHM, R53, UW, PT R44) ..... 34
Investment Thesis ........................................................................................................34
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