2009年12月南非黄金行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月南非黄金行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：64
        【目录或简介】：

Table of Contents
Investment thesis - top stock picks: ANG and GFI................5
Key drivers: gold at +$1,000/oz, stronger rand/dollar exchange rate ..........................5
SA gold share ratings remain stubbornly subdued.......................................................7
Investment conclusion – top picks ANG and GFI, upgrading DRD to OW (UW)......9
Gold price outlook..................................................................12
Liquidity, Liquidity, Liquidity, and central bank interest ..........................................12
Eskom shocks miners............................................................16
Introduction................................................................................................................16
Costs impact of power tariff hikes for the SA precious metals miners ......................17
Eskom has moderated its tariff increase proposals ....................................................18
SA gold miners adversely impacted by higher power tariffs .....................................19
The state of play at Eskom.........................................................................................20
Eskom’s project pipeline and financing projections ..................................................22
Conclusion .................................................................................................................24
Forecasts, valuations, price targets & sensitivity analysis 26
Changes to our currency and gold price assumptions ................................................26
EPS forecasts summary..............................................................................................26
DCF- based valuations and price targets summary....................................................27
Sensitivity analysis ....................................................................................................28
AngloGold Ashanti Limited ...................................................29
Description.................................................................................................................29
Model changes ...........................................................................................................30
Investment arguments and risks.................................................................................31
Key catalysts for rerating ...........................................................................................32
Constituents of our DCF valuation ............................................................................32
Investment conclusion ...............................................................................................32
DRDGold Ltd...........................................................................35
Description.................................................................................................................35
Model changes ...........................................................................................................36
Investment arguments and risks.................................................................................36
Key catalysts for rerating ...........................................................................................37
Constituents of our DCF valuation ............................................................................38
Investment conclusion ...............................................................................................38
Gold Fields Ltd .......................................................................40
Description.................................................................................................................40
Model changes ...........................................................................................................41
Investment arguments and risks.................................................................................42
Key catalysts for rerating ...........................................................................................43
Constituents of our DCF valuation ............................................................................43
Investment conclusion ...............................................................................................43
Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd................................................46
Description.................................................................................................................46
Model changes ...........................................................................................................47
Investment arguments and risks.................................................................................47
Key catalysts for rerating ...........................................................................................48
Constituents of our DCF valuation ............................................................................49
Investment conclusion ...............................................................................................49
Randgold Resources Ltd .......................................................51
Description.................................................................................................................51
Model changes ...........................................................................................................52
Investment arguments and risks.................................................................................52
Key catalysts for rerating ...........................................................................................53
Constituents of our DCF valuation ............................................................................54
Investment conclusion ...............................................................................................54
Tables
Table 1: Changes to key pricing assumptions (calendar years) ...................................6
Table 2: SA Gold share P/NPV at spot and at our assumptions...................................8
Table 3: Gold Supply and Demand (tons)..................................................................15
Table 4: The impact of Eskom's proposed 45%pa power tariff hikes on the Pt mining
industry ......................................................................................................................17
Table 5: The impact of Eskom's proposed 45%pa power tariff hikes on the Au
mining industry..........................................................................................................18
Table 6: The impact of a 35%pa power tariff hike on the Pt mining industry – Our
base case ....................................................................................................................18
Table 7: The impact of a 35%pa power tariff hike on the Au mining industry – Our
base case ....................................................................................................................18
Table 8: Valuation and earnings impact of a 35%pa power tariff hike on the SA gold
miners ........................................................................................................................19
Table 9: Details of Eskom's generating infrastructure ...............................................21
Table 10: Details of Eskom's capacity expansion plans.............................................22
Table 11: Details of Eskom's original funding projections (Rm, 30 Sep 2009).........22
Table 12: Details of Eskom's latest funding projections (Rm, 30 Nov 2009)............23
Table 13: Changes to our rand/dollar exchange rate assumptions .............................26
Table 14: Changes to key pricing assumptions (calendar years) ...............................26
Table 15: Summary of EPS forecast updates.............................................................27
Table 16: DCF valuations, ratings and price target derivation...................................27
Table 17: FY2010E EPS and DCF valuation sensitivity analysis..............................28
Figures
Figure 1: Gold price over the past decade – a friendly trend .......................................5
Figure 2: Rand/dollar exchange rate over the past decade - a roller-coaster ride.........6
Figure 3: Rand gold price and the SA gold index over the past decade.......................7

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 金行业 introduction 研究报告 行业 黄金 南非

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