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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球海运行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：53
【目录或简介】：
Equity Summary: All container shipping stocks rallied
last week on strong US retail sales data but particularly
for NOL, boost by MAS raising Singapore's 2010 GDP
forecast to 7-9% from 4.5%-6.5%. Shipbuilding stocks
surged last week on positive sentiment in the newbuild
market, as tanker and bulker companies placed orders
for multiple vessels with yards.
Tanker Market: An increase in inquiries for May cargo
fixtures coupled with tightening supply pushed rates to
~$56kpd, now $20kpd higher than 4Q 09 averages.
Aframaxes in the Caribbean have suffered from drastic
oversupply with rates dropping to just over ~1kpd earlier
last week. The recent strength in the VLCC market has
flowed over to Suezmaxes and Aframaxes as well.
There are currently 49 ships being used for storage (37
clean, 12 dirty, ~52mbpd total). A widening of the
contango in clean markets has led to increased inquiries
for distillate and gasoline floating storage. Therefore we
expect to see upward revisions to these figures next
week, as more ships are used to store clean product.
Dry Bulk Market: The market is still trying to recover
from the iron ore pricing uncertainty from a few weeks
ago. Capesize rates moved higher to ~$24kpd with
BHP and Rio Tinto active in the market. Rates remain
below Panamax and Supramax levels, however. Iron
ore prices continued their upward move, hitting all time
highs – spot 62% FE content increased to $178 per ton.
Container Market: Spot container freight rates
remained relatively unchanged last week.
China-Europe/Mediterranean rates softened marginally
by 1% while China-US rates strengthened marginally by
1%. We expect this trend to continue as freight rates on
AE routes are likely too high (at very profitable levels)
whereas freight rates on the Transpacific routes are too
low (at loss-making levels) and will improve in the
annual contract negotiations.
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