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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月欧洲海运行业研究报告
【作者】：CANTOR FITZGERALD AND COMPANY
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：55
【目录或简介】：
Oil Tankers: The tanker sector in 1Q:10 continued to benefit from the seasonal strength that
was built up from the end of 2009, with rates reaching near-term peaks in January before
gradually weakening as the quarter wore on. On average, earnings were significantly higher
quarter-on-quarter for every vessel class, with the largest percentage increase being in VLCC
rates and product tankers. Nevertheless, we are only cautiously optimistic about the tanker
outlook in the near-term, as we see risks in rising crude prices derailing economic recovery, the
large amount of land-based crude and product storage amongst the OECD nations, and the
potential for a reversal in the floating storage phenomenon to weigh negatively on tanker rates as
the vessels return to trading.
n We have generally maintained our rate assumptions, forecasts and price targets for the
tanker names in our coverage universe (see pages 10 and 11).
n Dry Bulk: With the exception of the Capesize sector, the dry bulk market continued to build on
the strength from the end of 2009 in the first quarter of 2010. Strong seasonal coal and grain
demand lent support to Panamax and Handymax rates, in our opinion, particularly Asian thermal
coal demand as severe Chinese drought conditions reduced hydroelectric power generation.
n We have updated our rate assumptions and forecasts for a number of dry bulk names in our
coverage universe (see pages 22 and 23).
n LPG: Time charter rates for LPG carriers generally remained weak in 1Q:10, as demand was
soft, in our opinion. However, the oversupply situation improved, as record scrapping levels
from 2009 continued into 1Q:10 and generally offset newbuild deliveries. We believe an
uncertain outlook for Middle Eastern exports, combined with excessive tonnage supply, could
lead to a difficult near-term market environment.
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