2010年2月亚太海运行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月亚太海运行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：38
        【目录或简介】：
Container shipping – Fundamentals extremely
weak… Morgan Stanley held a conference call with Neil
Dekker from Drewry Shipping Consultants on February
10, 2010. The key takeaway: Drewry remains extremely
cautious on container shipping fundamentals, citing
uncertain demand recovery and excess ship supply
largely suited only to large haul routes as problems that
will plague the industry over the next five years.
…but further rate hikes to profitable levels likely:
Conversely, Drewry believes that further freight rate
improvements are likely – particularly on Transpacific
routes, where rates are below profitable levels and liners
are willing to remove ship capacity to support rates
above breakeven, as shipping companies focus on
surviving the prolonged industry downturn.
We are more positive on OOIL, EGM and NOL…
These container shipping companies have relatively
higher exposure to the Transpacific routes and are well
positioned to restructure their cost bases.
…but remain cautious on CSCL and YMM: We cite
significant committed capacity expansion plans and
higher exposure to the Asia-Europe route, which is most
vulnerable to rapid rate deterioration.
Dry bulk shipping – 2010 and 2011 BDI likely
range-bound at 2,000-4,000: We expect BDI to be
volatile due to periodic stocking of iron ore and coal
inventories, with choices of domestic /international iron
ore creating cyclical swings in China’s demand.
Seasonal upswings in demand are also likely in the grain
season and for inventory build-up prior to the cold winter
months. Conversely, we expect significant dry bulk ship
deliveries over 2010-11 to cap any significant upside to
dry bulk shipping rates, particularly as shipyards are
building dry bulk ships without order contracts to fill
unplanned gaps in delivery schedules.
We still favor PB and CSD on a 12-month view: We
cite their more attractive relative valuations. We would
look to reduce positions in dry bulk shipping stocks on
strength and accumulate on dips.

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