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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月印度银行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：40
【目录或简介】：
Risk-reward shifts into reward territory;
we see positives outweighing near-term
concerns as the credit cycle turns
􀀗 We turn OW(V) on most PSU banks, as
we believe credit and earnings growth
surprises are just around the corner
􀀗 We prefer Canara, PNB, Union in PSUs;
Axis, HDFC Bank in the private space
We change to a favourable PSU stance prompted by the
recent turn in the credit cycle, a rise in short-term rates, and
our analysis of valuation metrics in an upcycle. Our scorecard
reveals that top-line growth, margins, profitability, valuations,
and shareholding patterns are now aligned to favour stock
outperformance in the banking sector over the next 12 months,
with a few exceptions.
Concerns remain on asset quality trends, rising bond yields,
and potential capital constraints, but these are fairly near
term, and we see the positives outweighing them over the
next two years as the credit cycle picks up steam.
Stocks that we favour to play the upcycle include relatively
small bank stocks with lower LDRs and higher CASA, as
well as those that have underperformed and now trade at a
discount to peers. In a nutshell, we prefer ‘tigers’ to ‘elephants’
at this point in the credit cycle.
PSU bank valuations likely to re-rate given that (1) FII
ownership is well below regulatory limits, with domestic
institutions taking up the slack, (2) the inverse correlation
with bond yields has broken down, and (3) ROEs of PSUs
are likely to reach a range of 25-30% (ex-SBI) by FY12.
The most significant upside catalysts have historically
been credit and earnings growth surprises and, on the
downside, tightening liquidity. A combination of earnings
surprises and quickly expanding PE multiples in an upcycle
are likely to outweigh tightening liquidity-related concerns.
‘Tigers’ we like are Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, Canara Bank,
and Union Bank. We also foresee upside in PNB, BOB, and
ICICI. All are rated OW(V). We upgrade PNB and BOB to
OW(V) and SBI to N(V).
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