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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月韩国银行业研究报告
【作者】：野村证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：98
【目录或简介】：
Executive summary
We initiate coverage of the Korean banks sector with a BULLISH rating. Following a
sharp recovery on the back of reduced balance sheet risks (liquidity, solvency and
recapitalisation), the share prices of Korean banks have corrected since peaking in
November 2009, on the back of tightened regulations, Kumho Group’s induction into
its workout program and emerging concerns on financial market instability stemming
from sovereign risks in the Euro region.
We believe Korean banks will weather the storm. In our view, Korea’s record-high FX
reserves (US$273bn as January 2010) and tightened FX liquidity regulation reduces
FX liquidity risk at Korean banks. In addition, counterparty risks from FX derivatives (ie,
KIKO) have been substantially subdued, thanks to provisions set aside and a reduction
in exposures. The Kumho Group situation has recently improved after the owner family
pledged its assets as collateral. Also, most Korean banks conservatively set aside
provisions on their Kumho Group exposure in 4Q09.
In our view, the recent correction provides an attractive entry point as Korean banks
could re-rate up to 1.1-1.4x P/B (12M forward) by end-2010, on double-digit ROE
expected for the next two years with higher earnings quality. Ongoing stringent
regulations should restrain excessive growth and competition. Hence, NIM at Korean
banks appear better positioned to benefit from interest rate hikes (we estimate +150bp
during 2H10).
Also, an expected prolonged economic recovery in 2010 should mitigate credit risk,
which has also been pre-emptively managed by the government through restructuring
programs and by Korean banks (ie, FLC-based loan classification and provisioning).
Lastly, the prospects have become brighter for the long-awaited industry consolidation,
which should help to restrain unnecessary competition as the overbanking situation is
resolved.
Contents
Executive summary 3
Regulation changes: looking on the bright side 4
Consolidation: upbeat prospects 4
Top-line growth: value restoration 4
Asset quality: advancing amid headwinds 5
We prefer stand-alone banks to FHCs: KEB, DGB, and IBK are our top picks 6
Key risks to our assumptions and price targets 7
Sensitivity analysis FY10F 9
Valuation and share price analysis 10
Summary of valuations 12
Valuation summary 14
Regulation changes: curbing flexibility 17
Consolidation: upbeat prospects 23
Improving prospects for sector consolidation 23
Difficult to expect significant value creation from M&As 24
WFG privatisation 25
Lone Star’s stake sale of Korea Exchange Bank 25
Top-line growth: value restoration 28
Net interest margin: riding on the interest rate hike 29
Loan growth: to normalise 34
Asset quality: advancing amid headwinds 37
Economic recovery, led by prolonged stimulus packages 38
SME credit quality to remain solid 39
Revisiting problematic areas of corporate loans 40
Kumho Group problems 45
Household credit quality to hold up 45
Household leverage is overestimated 46
Low LTV 47
Unemployment insurance programme & cash advance: liquidity buffers for
Korean households 48
Pre-emptive risk management by banks to ease burden on credit costs 48
Latest companies view
KB Financial Group 50
Shinhan Financial Group 55
Woori Financial Group 60
Hana Financial Group 65
Industrial Bank of Korea 70
Korea Exchange Bank 75
Daegu Bank 80
Busan Bank 85
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