英国零售行业研究报告2009年2月

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Retail Review
Let’s get this party started!
We are upgrading the General Retail sector from an average weighting
to an overweight stance. Much of the bad news, including rising
unemployment and the strengthening dollar has been factored into
stock prices. January has not been as bad as expected. We have
upgraded Kingfisher to Buy from Hold (Hold since 5/6/08), Carpetright
to Buy from Sell (Sell since 5/8/08), and Findel to Buy from Hold (Hold
since 15/12/08).
The department stores have, we believe, seen marginally positive sales in
January, which should come as a major surprise to the market. Most
analysts had assumed that sales would have reverted back to the negative
November and December sales trend. Lower interest rates, however, are
beginning to feed through into lower mortgage rates, which are helping a
large tier of the population heavily geared to the housing market.
Although categories such as DIY and electrical have not, in our view, seen
any upturn in sales in January, it is possible we will see the ‘green shoots’ of
recovery in these categories as early as the end of this quarter.
The General Retail sector has declined by 65% since May 2007,
underperforming the UK market by over 40% over this time and is currently
valued at a twenty year relative low. It is, in our view, oversold for the
following reasons.
• The sector is forecast to have a 2009 annualised dividend yield of 4.9%,
which is close to a twenty year high. It is also valued at just over 10x 2009
earnings, tracking well below the long term P/E average of 15x for the
sector. As sector earnings trough, we would expect the P/E average to
rise substantially from current levels.
• Sustained reductions in interest rates have historically led to a sharp rise
in the sector and significant outperformance.
• Capacity is being withdrawn as a consequence of stores being closed and
companies taking a more cautious view of bought-in purchases. We also
expect a contraction in the market share held by the independents.
• Debt is now becoming less of a concern.
• Corporate activity is likely to make a comeback on the agenda with the US
groups leading the way.
In our recommendations, we have favoured those companies that have
gearing to the housing market and interest rates, and are attractive as
possible corporate targets. We are, however, more cautious on the apparel
retailers because of the impact of a stronger dollar on their gross margins.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Recommendations 3
Introduction 4
Outlook for general retail sector in 2009 5
Sector valuations 16
General Retailers 17
ASOS 3,5 17
N Brown 17
Blacks Leisure 17
Carpetright 17
Debenhams 18
DSG International 18
Dunelm 18
Findel 18
French Connection 19
Game Group 19
Halfords 19
HMV 19
Home Retail 20
Kesa 20
Kingfisher 20
Marks & Spencer 20
Mothercare 21
Next 21
Sports Direct 21
Ted Baker 21
Topps Tiles 22
WH Smith 22
Corporate Retailers 23
Alexon 23
Hot Tuna 3,4,5 23
Jacques Vert 3,5 23
Liberty 3,5 23
Noble Investments 24
Portmeirion 3,5 24
Stanley Gibbons 3,5 24
Theo Fennell 3,5 24
United Carpets 3,5 25
Food Retailers 26
Sainsbury 26
Tesco 26
William Morrison 26
Appendix 1 - Christmas trading statements 27
Appendix 2 – Debt 28
Appendix 3 – Capacity reductions by category 29

Following the adoption of a more positive view on the sector, we are
upgrading our recommendation on Kingfisher (Buy from Hold) and
Carpetright (Buy from Sell), partly because lower mortgage costs should
lead to a recovery in ‘improve not move’ spending. We are also upgrading
Findel (Buy from Hold) as we believe the stock is oversold. The company
will, in our view, not breach its covenants.
Excluding the above companies, our key BUYS are the following:
ASOS – Weaker than expected trading over Christmas was due to
management error and not the model.
DSG Int – Management now has momentum in implementing its strategy.
Game Group – Stock is rated at 5.2x 2008/9 earnings, yields 4% and would,
we believe, make an ideal target for US Group, Gamestop.
Halfords – is a relatively defensive business and dominates the market in its
categories. Stock is too lowly rated at 7.2x 2008/9 forecast earnings.
Sports Direct – is well placed to benefit from any fall out in the UK sports
market. Stock is rated at 7.3x 2008/9 forecast earnings.
Our key SELLS are the following:
Blacks Leisure - The unprofitable boardwear division will continue to drag
the business down.
Debenhams – Debt problems, which will be hard to resolve, will loom large
over the share price.
Topps Tiles – Concerns are growing over the viability of the model.
Mothercare and HMV – both stocks are now expensive relative to the sector
and are trading at the top end of their trading ranges. Mothercare is rated at
13.1x 2008/9 forecast earnings while HMV is rated at 12.9x earnings.
In food retailing, Tesco is our preferred stock. The company has a strong
development pipeline; will make significant inroads in multi channel retailing
through Tesco Direct; and has the potential to improve margins on non food.
It is rated at 12.5x 2008/9 forecast earnings and is more lowly valued than
peers, Sainsbury and Morrison.

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