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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球海上石油开采行业研究报告
【作者】：RS PLATOU MARKETS
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：69
【目录或简介】：
Have we seen the bottom yet?
Entering into the Q1 earnings season, we expect most
companies to report solid numbers; deepwater leveraged
companies continues to live off their solid contract backlogs,
while jack-up and mid-water leveraged names have witnessed
increasing activity from an improved overall demand.
Deepwater awards continue to drag. With only 8 ultradeep/
deepwater fixtures year to date, the 2011 supply
overhang and sublet availability remains an industry
headache. While we expect more contracts to be awarded
over the coming months, we believe the inexperienced and
less capitalized operators could push rates further down.
However, this could in turn create buying opportunities for
the more experienced operators.
Midwater market remains without pricing power.
Although we have witnessed a steady increase in (shortterm)
contract awards this year, the market remains
without any pricing power due to plentiful supply. The
North Sea and South East Asia remains the most active
regions, with dayrates mostly ranging from USDk 250-300.
Jack-ups moving into two tiers. The overall jack-up
markets has seen a steady northbound journey over the
past months with a clear tendency of E&P companies
favouring modern ultra premium units despite a USDk 30-
40 dayrate premium to older asset. While we expect this
trend to continue, we suggest there is a spread limit due to
abundant supply which will cap dayrates in 2010.
Our offshore contract drilling universe currently trades
at 6.2x and 7.6x 2011E and mark-to-market EV/EBITDA
and 1.4x P/NAV. Although this might appear aggressive
in light of concerns over deepwater dayrates sliding
lower and range bound jack-up dayrates, we believe
there are several attractively prices companies due to
large valuation differences within the peer group.
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