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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月亚洲海上石油开采设备行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：43
【目录或简介】：
We see offshore vessel orders worth
USD60bn coming over 2010e-12e
Samsung Heavy and Hyundai Heavy are
the most reputable and well-placed to
win ‘deepwater’ orders
Maintain OW(V) on Hyundai Heavy
and Samsung Heavy; N(V) on
Sembcorp Marine
Saving the yards – Offshore E&P
A play on the E&P investment cycle - We believe that
E&P investment activity is moving into a third long-term
phase where offshore work is increasingly important. This
phase is likely to be dominated by ‘deepwater oil & gas’
activity in Brazil/Latin America, West Africa and
Australasia. We estimate offshore vessel orders worth
USD60bn are likely to be announced over 2010e-12e;
Petrobras’ first round share in this is likely to be cUSD10bn.
Samsung Heavy and Hyundai Heavy at an advantage –
much of the investment needed is likely to be for complex
deepwater assets like drillships, FPSOs and offshore LNG
where Korean companies like Samsung Heavy and Hyundai
Heavy have an advantage due to their prior experience and
know-how. We think this should give them an edge over the
Singaporean duo of Keppel and Sembcorp Marine; these
players have historically been stronger in the shallow water
market (eg. jack-up rigs). Also, with merchant shipbuilding
orders down to a trickle, Samsung Heavy and Hyundai Heavy
are likely to refocus on offshore projects, a contrast to 2006-
1H08 when merchant shipbuilding orders were plentiful.
We are Overweight (V) on Hyundai Heavy (TP:
KRW290,000) due to its multi-industry exposure (including
offshore) and Samsung Heavy (TP: KRW34,000) on strong
offshore oil & gas portfolio. Both Hyundai Heavy and
Samsung Heavy trade at cheap multiples (trading at around
1.4-1.6x 2010 PB vs. sector average of 2.0x PB). We remain
Neutral (V) on Sembcorp Marine (TP: SGD4.0) due to its
exposure to jack-ups and earnings concerns over its associate
COSCO Singapore.
Industrials
Asia Machinery
Building offshore
E&P
An opportunity in waiting
Ratings summary
Company BBG Ticker Rating New TP Old TP Current
price
Samsung HI 010140 KS OW(V) KRW34,000 KRW36,000 KRW27,150
Hyundai HI 009540 KS OW(V) KRW290,000 KRW290,000 KRW228,500
Sembcorp
Marine
SMM SP N(V) SGD4.0 SGD3.65 SGD4.0
Source: HSBC estimates, Prices as of 15th March, 2010
17 March 2010
Tarun Bhatnagar*
Analyst
HSBC Bank PLC
+9180 3001 3726
tarunbhatnagar@hsbc.co.in
Brian Cho*
Regional Head of Industrials Research
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited,
Seoul Securities Branch
+822 3706 8750
briancho@kr.hsbc.com
David Phillips
Analyst
HSBC Bank PLC
david1.phillips@hsbcib.com
+44 207 991 2344
Ankur Sharma*
Associate,
Bangalore
View HSBC Global Research at: http://www.research.hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is
not registered/qualified pursuant to NYSE and/or NASD regulations
Issuer of report: HSBC Bank plc
Disclaimer & Disclosures
This report must be read with the
disclosures and the analyst certifications in
the Disclosure appendix, and with the
Disclaimer, which forms part of it
The Extel Survey runs from 22 March to 8 May.
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