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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国传媒行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：50
【目录或简介】：
Investment conclusion: We reiterate our Underweight
rating on both RGC and CNK shares as we continue to
favor stocks in the media group with upside to a cyclical
recovery in advertising revenues and exposure to
improving monetization in TV content. For the exhibitors,
in 2010, we expect 3% attendance declines as the
beginning of a consumer recovery reverses the benefits
to the box office seen in 2009 from a trade down in
leisure spend. Based on our attendance outlook, we
expect margins to compress slightly as we see a
mix-shift from ~85% margin concession revenues to
~45% admissions revenues. Additionally, we anticipate
there will be cost pressure due to the digital/3-D rollout
as well as an increase in film rental costs due a heavier
reliance on tent-pole films. As a result, film exhibition is
the only area within media where we expect EBITDA
declines. Our EBITDA estimates are roughly 6% below
consensus for RGC and 4% below consensus for CNK.
1Q10 receipts grew 11-12%, driven by 8-9% growth
in ticket prices and 2% growth in attendance: On
RGC, we increased our blended average pricing growth
assumptions for 1Q by 3.5% to 9.5% and increased
attendance growth to 1% as a result of 1Q actuals. We
have also increased our price target from $12 to $14 due
to an increased DCF value related to these higher
pricing assumptions. We have not significantly changed
CNK estimates as we had assumed 10% growth.
Growing 3-D slate and competition increases
skepticism over the sustainability of 3-D ticket
premiums: While still too early to tell, a significant
increase in 3-D films in 2010-2012may test limits of
consumer appetite for 3-D ticket premiums. We
estimate that 3-D tickets as a percentage of total
admissions will increase from 7-8% in 2009 to 16-17% in
2010. Thus, as more content comes out in 3D (as many
as 27 films compared to 12 in 2009) we expect price
premiums to come under pressure.
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