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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国传媒行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：27
【目录或简介】：
Media
Pause Button Update: DVD
Sales Declines Slow; Store
Rental Declines Accelerate
Investment conclusion: Film remains one area of
concern within the context of our Attractive Media
industry view. The focus of major industry players on
reducing studio overhead, smaller film slates and
greater focus on tent-pole films has helped to offset
challenging underlying trends within home video.
Studios have also acted quickly in establishing a 28-day
window to promote sell-through and video-on-demand.
Consumers continue to migrate from sell-through to
rentals, a negative margin shift for studios, and towards
lower cost channels within rental. Additionally, growth in
Blu-ray and digital has not yet offset declines in
traditional red-laser DVD sales.
Some trends shifting in 2010: Nonetheless, we are
beginning to see some signs of improvement in physical
DVD and Blu-ray sell-through as unit sales declines
slowed from -10% in 2009 to -5% in 1Q10. However, the
rental market appears to be more rapidly migrating
towards lower cost channels such as Netflix and kiosks
and away from traditional store-based rentailers (~down
25-30% in 1Q10). This mix shift pushes the revenue per
rental down, leading to 1Q10 rental revenues down over
10%. Meanwhile, digital sales and rentals (excl. VOD)
remain a relatively small piece of the film business
(approximately 3-4% of all usage) and growth may not
accelerate without greater co-operation on digital
formats through initiatives such as DECE and Keychest.
Changes to our industry forecasts: We now assume
DVD sales decline 10% versus our 17% prior estimate.
However, we have reduced our estimate for Blu-ray as a
percentage of total physical sales from ~30% to ~20%
based on YTD results. We are also taking a more
cautious view of digital rental and sell-through. Lastly,
we have reduced our estimates for rental spending by
adjusting pricing per rental down by about 7-8%. Overall,
home video spending is still expected to be down in the
low single digits versus 2009.
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