2010年4月美国计算机行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国计算机行业研究报告
        【作者】：COWEN证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：68
        【目录或简介】：
Business Services- March 2010 Quarterly
Preview
Analysts
Moshe Katri
(646) 562-1327
moshe.katri@cowen.com
Avishai Kantor
(646) 562-1313
avishai.kantor@cowen.com
Please see addendum
of this report for
important disclosures.
www.cowen.com
Conclusion: We expect most vendors under our business services coverage to
post accelerating YOY and Q-Q top line growth, with earnings benefiting from QQ
flat or expanding EBIT margins (pricing, efficiencies). Having said that, we
believe most management teams will continue to provide guarded tone and
guidance considering the uncertainty related to the sustainability of the
ongoing economic recovery (high unemployment rates, credit freeze, weak IT
budgets for large financial platforms, etc.). Our focus names are ADS (F/X
benefits, abating credit losses, etc.), MA, and V (regulatory/litigation "noise"
creating volatility).
■ MA, V continue to benefit from easier comps, gradual recovery in
credit trends. Recent card data (C, BAC, JPM) continued to show
accelerating YOY comps for both credit and debit transactions. However, we
believe earnings upside could be capped by a weak seasonal (retail
spending) quarter and none of the typical pricing benefits. Furthermore,
recent regulatory/litigation developments, including upcoming hearing on
merchants lawsuit and the passage of pro-merchant regulation at VT’s
Senate could cap the stock’s performances of both MA and V.
■ ADS. ADS is expected to report today AMC, In our view, the combination of
currency benefits (CAD/USD), below (9.5%) guidance credit losses and strong
credit portfolio growth (20%+) could generate stronger than expected
results. We also feel that the recent adoption of FAS 166/167 with no
material dilution addressed investors’ most pressing concerns.
Furthermore, potential initiatives undertaken by ADS’ new CFO in order to
improve transparency could expand ADS’ potential shareholder base. The
stock continues to trade at an attractive 9% FCF yield.
■ ADP- focus continues on new sales pipeline. While we recently
upgraded our rating from underperform to neutral, the impact of a jobless
recovery on ADP’s growth prospects remains our major concern.

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