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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国医疗诊断行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：45
【目录或简介】：
With the bulk of our life science tools, diagnostic, and CRO companies set to report
earnings this week, we are previewing March quarter results. Following a challenging
2009, end markets appear generally stable and, as we noted previously, we remain
most positive on TMO and LIFE heading into 1Q results given the combination of
upside earnings potential this year and attractive valuation (15.9x and 15.2x, resp.).
• Despite some signs of improvement, R&D outlook remains mixed. Although
visibility around biopharma R&D budgets remains mixed in light of ongoing
pharma integration and other factors, Street expectations still call for a pickup in
2010 from 2009 levels. Specifically, IMS is currently forecasting global
pharma/biotech sales growth of 4-6% in 2010; while R&D spend as a percent of
revenue is expected to remain steady or decrease only slightly. This is modestly
above forecasts by J.P. Morgan analysts for major U.S. and European biopharma
companies, which call for global sales growth of 3.1% y/y in 2010 with R&D
growth of 1.7% y/y after 1.7% sales growth in 2009 and a 0.5% decline in R&D
spending. Notably, while total sales estimates (+3.1% y/y) by J.P. Morgan analysts
have not changed since 4Q earnings results, R&D growth projections have decreased
from 3.9% y/y previously to 1.7% y/y today due to ongoing integration activities.
For outsourced service suppliers (i.e., CROs), after a wave of consolidation among
large pharma companies and a challenging biotech financing environment, which
has seen some improvement of late, we nonetheless expect that pipeline
rationalization will continue to prove disruptive. In this context we would not be
surprised if RFP flow and project cancellations remain a lingering issue for some in
1H10, although there have been recent signs of encouragement, including favorable
results from PPDI this week (1.48 book-to-bill).
• For life science tool companies, focus remains on stimulus, FX, and M&A.
Following a difficult 2009 in which instrument markets were down 15-20% due to
consumable destocking, stimulus delays, etc., trends appear more stable, with most
companies targeting mid-single-digit growth this year. As such, we do not expect
significant surprises around 4Q results for life science tool suppliers, although we
expect most to maintain a generally conservative stance on 2010. As mentioned,
biopharma R&D budgets are likely to remain constrained for the foreseeable future,
although an increasing drive toward standardization (in QA/QC and other areas)
should benefit diversified suppliers, such as LIFE and TMO, while new product
cycles (i.e., Synapt G2 and H-Class from WAT, HiSeq from ILMN, Solid 4 from
LIFE) are also expected to contribute as the year progresses. On the academic front,
>14,300 NIH grants have now been awarded using $5.6bn of ARRA funds (~53% of
allocation), with a median grant size of $214K. For comparison, by CY09-end,
>13,200 NIH grants had been awarded using $4.5bn of ARRA funds (43% of
allocation), with a median grant size of $220K. We note this represents ARRAfunded
grant awards only and does not include other NIH ARRA-funded activities,
such as contract awards, although we continue to believe that some of the funding is
being used in lieu of existing grants (i.e., swap-out effect). Finally, regarding
industrial and applied markets, we expect most companies to maintain a conservative
tone regarding an industrial recovery, although TMO, WAT, and others have
recently noted some signs of improvement as service picked up over the last several
quarters, although the replacement cycle is not fully expected to return until 2011.
Table of Contents
End Market Outlook ....................................................................................................8
Upcoming Catalysts...................................................................................................16
Life Science Tools..................................................................17
Affymetrix (AFFX, Neutral)......................................................................................17
Bruker (BRKR, Overweight) .....................................................................................18
Illumina (ILMN, Overweight) ...................................................................................20
Life Technologies (LIFE, Overweight)......................................................................21
Mettler-Toledo (MTD, Overweight)..........................................................................23
Millipore (MIL, Neutral) ...........................................................................................25
Thermo-Fisher Scientific (TMO, Overweight) ..........................................................25
Waters (WAT, Neutral) .............................................................................................27
CROs .......................................................................................29
Charles River Laboratories (CRL, Not Rated)...........................................................29
Covance (CVD, Overweight).....................................................................................30
Icon (ICLR, Overweight)...........................................................................................32
WuXi (WX, Not Rated) .............................................................................................33
Diagnostics .............................................................................34
Beckman Coulter (BEC, Overweight) .......................................................................34
Genomic Health (GHDX, Neutral) ............................................................................36
Gen-Probe (GPRO, Overweight) ...............................................................................37
Luminex (LMNX, Neutral)........................................................................................39
Myriad Genetics (MYGN, Overweight) ....................................................................40
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