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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国建材行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：38
【目录或简介】：
Builders grow community count for the first time since the downturn began
Builders' aggressive land purchases have gotten a lot of attention recently, but
where it really matters is in community openings on the ground. Those land
purchases are making a difference - our proprietary community count survey finds
that in 1Q10 builders grew their community count for the first time since we
began keeping track three years ago. Community counts are still down -44%
during that time and the reinvestment boom reflects liquidity more than demand;
however, the inflection in community counts is still notable.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Industry Update
Top picks
M.D.C. Holdings (MDC.N),USD35.00 Buy
Companies featured
D.R. Horton (DHI.N),USD12.76 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -1.73 0.52 -0.19
P/E (x) – 24.4 –
EV/EBITDA (x) – 24.4 37.6
K. Hovnanian (HOV.N),USD6.32 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -9.16 1.22 -1.92
P/E (x) – 5.2 –
EV/EBITDA (x) – – –
Lennar (LEN.N),USD18.52 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -2.45 -0.39 -0.25
P/E (x) – – –
EV/EBITDA (x) – 85.3 44.3
Meritage Homes (MTH.N),USD21.07 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -2.12 -0.75 -0.15
P/E (x) – – –
EV/EBITDA (x) – 192.1 92.3
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM.N),USD11.77 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -3.95 -1.32 -0.58
P/E (x) – – –
EV/EBITDA (x) – 6.5 34.3
Ryland Homes (RYL.N),USD23.65 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -3.74 -2.08 -0.48
P/E (x) – – –
EV/EBITDA (x) – – 130.2
Toll Brothers (TOL.N),USD21.65 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -4.74 -1.25 -1.08
P/E (x) – – –
EV/EBITDA (x) – – 83.2
KB Home (KBH.N),USD17.75 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -1.33 -1.56 -0.82
P/E (x) – – –
EV/EBITDA (x) – – 148.4
M.D.C. Holdings (MDC.N),USD35.00 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 0.53 -0.46 0.22
P/E (x) 60.1 – 160.3
EV/EBITDA (x) – 135.9 28.3
Global Markets Research Company
Community count rebuilding begins – first stabilization then growth
After falling at a compound quarterly rate of -5.8% the past ten quarters,
community count grew 2.1% in 1Q10 from 4Q09. Year/year trends are still
negative at -9.3% but should match the stabilization of the market and turn
positive within the next two quarters. From there history tells us that growing
community count is harder than shrinking it – even during the boom, average
quarterly growth was only 2-3%; however, builders have never had so much cash
to spend so growth rates could be higher depending on management aggression.
If you’re not earning anything on $14 billion in cash, why not buy some land?
When we first identified a potential inflection point in community counts a few
quarters ago, many investors’ first question was how should we interpret it? In
normal housing cycles this inflection point is positive, because a V-shaped demand
recovery spurs renewed land investment. This cycle, demand and reinvestment
aren’t necessarily on the same page. The trajectory of demand has been anything
but V-shaped, with government stimulus and economic recovery merely stabilizing
demand at depressed levels. At the same time, builders have accumulated more
cash/equivalents (10x historical norms) than ever before. Capital markets are also
now wide open for builders. This combination of excess liquidity and an uncertain
outlook implies that current land investments are functioning more as option-like
positions on recovery rather than coincident indicators of improving conditions.
7 out of 11 builders grew community counts, but DR Horton still stands out
Only three builders grew community count in 4Q09; in 1Q10 that number grew to
seven. Lennar had the biggest swing, going from a decline of 25 in 4Q09 to a 33
increase in 1Q10; Lennar’s aggressive shift gave it a group leading 9% sequential
increase in communities. But it is still DR Horton that stands out the most. While
the rest of the builders still have 16% fewer communities than a year ago, DR
Horton’s communities are up a stunning 24% from last year.
Order Forecasts/Valuation/risks
With this report we are updating our order forecasts (EPS unchanged). See page 6
for details. In valuing the homebuilders, we take forecasted fully impaired book
value per share and apply a target price-to-book multiple that incorporates a
penalty for higher liquidity risk as ascribed by the CDS market. Downside risks
include more job losses and falling consumer confidence. On the upside, easing in
mortgage standards, or further government intervention in foreclosures could help
the housing market and homebuilders. See page 34.
Table of Contents
Company analysis.............................................................................. 3
Overall company forecasts .......................................................................................................3
Preview of 1Q10 company order trends...................................................................................4
Builder community trends ................................................................ 8
Builders increase communities compared to last quarter.........................................................8
Builder market changes ..........................................................................................................13
Analyzing public builder exposure to the top 10 & 25 markets...............................................15
Bubble market exposure.........................................................................................................19
Five most important markets for each builder ........................................................................22
Standardized absorptions........................................................................................................24
Metro analysis.................................................................................. 25
Analyzing trends in aggregate at the state and metro level ....................................................25
Community density in the top 40 metros ...............................................................................29
Methodology & definitions............................................................. 32
What is a community? ............................................................................................................32
Valuation and risks ..................................................................................................................34
Appendix A....................................................................................... 35
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