发帖
雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲建材行业研究报告
【作者】：法国农业信贷银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：36
【目录或简介】：
2010: A YEAR TO SEIZE OPPORTUNITIES
􀁑 Looking beyond the coldest winter in decades
While we expect extremely poor Q1-09 results in America and
Europe, we think the volumes lost to severe winter conditions will be
recovered over the rest of the year. Our medium-term preference
remains with reasonably valued recovery plays as opposed to nicely
performing emerging markets with little operating leverage left. We
expect more M&A activity in recovering markets in 2010-2011.
􀁑 CRH, Holcim most likely to lead M&A in 2010/2011
Our analysis suggests that among the large caps CRH and Holcim
have most room to put their balance sheets to work. While CRH
should remain focused on materials in the US, cement positions in
sub-Saharan Africa would nicely complement Holcim's geography.
A number of smaller companies like Vicat, Geberit and Sika have
the strongest balance sheets, but for the same reason of prudence,
it is difficult to bet on significant moves in the near term.
􀁑 The rise of emerging market rivals in cement
We think that the rise of independent emerging market players will
continue, probably increasing the competition for assets available
for sale. Pushing bid prices higher, this will make value-creative
acquisitions more difficult before the next "emerging market crisis".
􀁑 HC, Saint-Gobain, CRH our preferred names
HC and Saint-Gobain remain our top picks for valuation reasons.
However, M&A activity is likely to benefit them less than CRH,
whose management lately communicated an increased readiness to
put the balance sheet to work. We raise our target price to EUR23
from EUR20 on CRH and from EUR50 to EUR52 on HC, which both
remain 2/Outperform. For Geberit (3/Underperform), we raise our
target price to CHF185 from CHF165 on financial flexibility, but
without factoring in any significant deals as management reiterated
there is nothing on the table.
􀁑 Wolseley: from 2/Outperform to 3/Underperform
Wolseley's share price is up by more than 30% since the start of
2010. We are now close to our target price at 1700p and in the short
term we do not see the factors that are likely to bring additional
upside to both our earnings estimates and target price. Disposals
rather than acquisitions remain management's focus.
Summary 3
I— Valuation, mid-cycle earnings approach 5
􀁑 Mid-cycle valuation revisited 5
II— Why M&A and who are the predators? 8
􀁑 Factors supporting higher M&A activity 8
􀁑 Fire power for each company 10
􀁑 Value creation potential 12
III— More opportunities for smaller deals 13
􀁑 Exceptions among listed companies 13
􀁑 Few emerging cement markets left to conquer 15
􀁑 India offers further room for consolidation 16
􀁑 Africa: could there be "sub-Saharan Orascom" story? 18
􀁑 Conclusion: a rise of rivals from emerging markets 20
􀁑 Cement globals remain net sellers 20
􀁑 Opportunities from distressed sellers 22
IV— Reassessing product companies' strategies 25
􀁑 Geberit: strongest fire power, but other constraints 25
􀁑 Imerys: focus on China 25
􀁑 Sika: "bolt-ons" to continue 26
􀁑 Saint-Gobain: Pending disposal of its packaging division 26
􀁑 Wienerberger: will keep buying 27
􀁑 Wolseley: Refocus on core markets is not completed yet 27
Building materials sustainability profile 25
京公网安备 11010802022788号
