2010年4月韩国半导体行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月韩国半导体行业研究报告
        【作者】：Mirae Asset
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：36
        【目录或简介】：
Too strong to pass up
All key factors look strongly positive for semiconductors. With the exception of Samsung Electronics (SEC), most chipmakers should post single-digit growth in bit shipments in 1H10. With PC shipments set to surge to 20% growth levels for the first time since 1999, investor and market expectations on DRAM will be heightened. Meantime, supply should hold up as DRAM makers are still far from setting up production lines in advanced process technologies. We advise investors to buy into ongoing momentum before capex and supply build up.
» Party isn’t over yet. Stay Overweight
Stocks for action
Company
Rating
Price
Target price
Samsung Electronics
(005930 KS)
BUY
825,000
1,000,000
Hynix Semiconductor
(000660 KS)
BUY
See the last page of this report for important disclosures
Factoring in market conditions, we expect earnings momentum to remain strong up to 2Q10 and 3Q10 while FY10 valuations stay undemanding at current levels. We initiate with BUY ratings on Samsung Electronics (SEC) and Hynix Semi with target prices of W1,000,000 on SEC based on FY10E 8.6x P/E and 2.1x P/B and W35,000 on Hynix based on FY10E P/E of 6.1x and P/B of 2.3x.
» PCs – will demand growth live up to the hype?
Forecasts for PC shipment growth in the 20s are the highest seen since Y2K concerns created the 1999 bubble. While the impact of global economic policies on fund liquidity is a real threat to the pace of consumer and corporate demand growth in 2H10, the good news is we are seeing signs of corporate earnings bottoming out from 2H10, after which a gradual uptrend in corporate PC demand will be more assured.
» DRAM – tracking nicely with PCs but watch that capex
With PC demand on a longer term uptrend, investors should make the most of the current momentum in the chip industry while keeping in mind past lessons on the potential onset of greed and capex ramp ups. Stay long over 3-6 months while bracing for a possible adjustment over 6-12 months during which Korean chipmakers may see shorter adjustments and even outperform overseas peers and other sectors.
» Flash – smartphone demand and the iPhone halo effect
We expect a solid 36% of flash memory demand in 2010 to come from handsets, mainly smartphones, up from 29% in 2009, driven by Apple’s 3G iPhone growth and SEC’s global expansion drive. With chip demand tied to ever expanding flash memory capacity in handsets, demand from this segment could grow even faster in 2011 when more memory heavy models like the 4G iPhone (rumored to support 64GB) hit the market.

CONTENTS
Too strong to pass up.....................................................................................1
Party isn’t over yet. Stay Overweight............................................................3
All major factors look positive – demand growing, supply limited 3
… but don’t let your guard down amid the market euphoria 3
Overweight on earnings momentum and undemanding valuations 3
Three checkpoints for 2H10 3
PCs – will demand live up to the hype?.........................................................4
Demand growth sparks supply growth… but how fast? 5
Leading Korean chipmakers could outperform in the 2H10 dip 6
DRAM – tracking with PCs but watch that capex..........................................7
Assessing pent-up demand and corporate replacement growth 7
Smart TV impact on DRAM market to become visible from 2012 7
Supply – will domestic chipmakers slow down or speed up capex? 8
Watch production yields of overseas competitors over 4Q10-1Q11 8
Hints of a supply hike over late 2010-early 2011 could weigh on cyclical memory shares 8
Flash – smartphone demand and iPhone’s ‘halo effect’..............................10
Higher capacity flash to more than double annually through 2011 10
SSD to take over only after meaningful flash price decline 10
Tablet PCs like iPad to generate new flash demand of 1-2% 11
New demand creation vs. cannibalization 11
Will iPhone cast its halo effect? 12
Supply – SEC seemingly quiet, Toshiba aggressive, Hynix unknown 12
What if a hitherto sluggish Hynix rises again? 13
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): Good entry point at under 900K..........14
Hynix Semiconductor Inc (000660.KS): Too tempting to miss...................27
Analyst team profile.....................................................................................35

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关键词：行业研究报告 半导体行业 研究报告 行业研究 半导体 研究报告 行业 韩国 半导体

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