【出版时间及名称】:2010年5月美国半导体行业研究报告
【作者】:WELLS FARGO
【文件格式】:pdf
【页数】:88
【目录或简介】:
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Pulse Of Technology..................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Growth Projections .......................................................................................................................................................................................7
Semiconductors............................................................................................................................................................................................ 8
Capital Spending And Capacity........................................................................................................................................................... 11
Microprocessors...................................................................................................................................................................................15
Memory ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Taiwanese Monthly Semiconductor Sales ..........................................................................................................................................31
End Markets........................................................................................................................................................................................ 33
Inventory .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Computers .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 45
Desktops .......................................................................................................................................................................................51
Notebooks.................................................................................................................................................................................... 54
Servers ..........................................................................................................................................................................................57
Wireless Handsets...................................................................................................................................................................................... 63
Economic Data ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 68
Pulse Of Technology
• Semiconductors--demand remains solid, in our view. For the month of March worldwide
semiconductor sales reported by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) were up 54% year over
year, comparable with the 55% growth of February and better than we had expected. The three-month
rolling average of semiconductor sales was up 5% sequentially. Year to date (the three months of the
March quarter), chip sales were up 58% year over year. Microprocessor sales grew 23% year over year in
March, versus year-over-year growth of 63% in February and 68% in January. We attribute this
deceleration to month-to-month volatility in the SIA data and expect that total microprocessor sales
growth to continue to outpace total IC sales growth the most of 2010, as it did in 2009 and the first two
months of 2010. We think that the computer market is likely to be one of the stronger of the technology
end markets in 2010, driving continued outperformance of microprocessors as a chip category. DRAM
sales were up 178% year over year in March, following growth of 163% year over year in February. We
discuss the DRAM data in more detail in the text that follows. DRAM year-over-year growth is helped
somewhat by particularly easy comparisons as memory prices plunged in the final months of 2008 and
remained soft in early 2009. However, we also think that the 10% month-over-month growth in total
DRAM bit shipments suggests ongoing strength in demand for DRAM from computer makers. We have
raised our full-year 2010 semiconductor growth projection to 20-30% from a prior, 15-25%. IC sales were
up 52% year over year, while IC units were also up 52%, implying that blended IC average selling prices
(ASP) remained roughly flat with the year-ago period. We expect IC ASPs to be pushed up by tightening
capacity through 2010. The ratio of worldwide semiconductor equipment sales to semiconductor IC sales
remained roughly flat in March, at 11.1%, compared with 11.2% in February. This remains very low
compared with the 15-25% range typical of 1990 through 2007. We continue to expect rising
semiconductor capacity utilization through 2010. The SIA data show that IC units shipments were up
slightly (2-3%) on a sequential basis in the March 2010 quarter, suggesting that capacity utilization might
even rise slightly on a sequential basis in the (seasonally weak) March quarter. Contrary to our fear that
rising foundry utilization could drive up foundry wafer ASPs for fabless chip companies, in the March
quarter, foundry wafer ASPs notched down despite rising capacity utilization at both TSMC and UMC. We
calculate TSMC’s wafer ASP fell to $1,133 in March from $1,173 in December, and UMC’s, to $815 in
March from $877 in the prior quarter.
• Computers--solid desktop demand, in our view, and other signs of a corporate refresh.
Gartner’s estimates for worldwide PC (desktop and notebook) shipments in the March 2010 quarter were
for 28% year-over-year growth, a further rise from the 22% year-over-year growth in the December 2009
quarter. We think that easy comparisons should result in similar year-over-year growth numbers in the
June 2010 quarter. Notebooks continue to be an important driver for the overall PC market. Gartner
estimates that notebook shipments were up 44% year over year in the March quarter (down 6%
sequentially) following notebook growth of 36% year over year in the December quarter. Seagate’s
notebook disk drives were up 54% year over year, while Western Digital’s notebook disk drive shipments
increased 62% year over year during the March quarter. Strong desktop results and firm microprocessor
pricing point to the beginning of corporate PC refresh, in our view. Gartner estimates that desktop
shipments declined just 5% sequentially in the March quarter (up 12% year over year). Seagate’s desktop
disk drive units showed relative strength in the March quarter, with unit shipments declining 2%
sequentially. Both Intel and AMD reported microprocessor ASPs were flat to up, implying, we think, that
PC mix remains stable. In March Intel launched its Nehalem-EX server processors for 4-way servers and
Westmere-EP processors for 2-way servers, and AMD its Magny-Cours chips for both 4-way and 2-way
servers. These launches complete a full refresh of x86 server products from both companies. The new
server chips from both Intel and AMD offer significant performance improvements (1.3-3.8x) over prior
generation server chips. We think that this will help stimulate the already robust demand for x86 servers
this year. IBM reported that its x86 server sales were up 36% year over year, comparable with growth of
37% year over year in the previous quarter. We think IBM’s numbers suggest that x86 servers may be
eating into sales of other types of servers. However, IBM explained the relative weakness in its Mainframe
and Unix servers (sales in both categories were down 17% year over year) as a pause before the ramp-up of
new higher-end products later this year. Gartner estimates that x86 server units were up 25% year over
year in the March quarter (down 5% sequentially).
Wireless handsets still looking soft. Overall handset shipments fell 15% sequentially in the March quarter
for the top five wireless handset vendors (Nokia, Samsung, LG, Sony Ericsson, and Motorola) during the
March 2010 quarter, following 12% sequential growth in the prior quarter. Even if Apple and RIM (Rimm’s
February numbers) are added to the mix, since in the March quarter both companies, in fact, overtook
Motorola in unit shipments, aggregate unit shipments for the big 7 handset makers (accounting for, we
estimate, 80% or more of the total handset market) declined 14% sequentially. We consider this to be weakerthan-
normal seasonal. We estimate that worldwide handset shipments fell about 12% sequentially, to 300
million units. This represents 9% year-over-year growth in March, little improvement from Gartner’s estimate