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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国地产行业研究报告
【作者】：Mirae Asset
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：40
【目录或简介】：
Positioning for uncertainty
The strictness and frequency of measures introduced since 17 April highlights the Chinese government’s determination to cool property prices. We forecast ’10 spot prices to fall 10 – 15% YoY under heightening policy risks, contract sales to fall 15 – 20% YoY and downgrade our ratings on COLI, R&F, Glorious and KWG to HOLD, and Sino Ocean to Reduce. We maintain BUY on Shimao and HOLD on CR Land and Longfor. Although the Chinese developers’ shares have started to price-in these risks, we believe re-entry warrants patience. Maintain Neutral on the sector.
» The return of a very visible hand
Policy risks remain high given the government’s determination to cool steep property price growth, which rose 30% in major top tier Chinese cities between 2Q09 and 1Q10. We expect the intensity of such policy measures to continue until the government achieves its goal. Meanwhile the latest tightened mortgage policies will dampen physical market demand in the near term. Other outstanding policy and macro overhangs include harsher idle land checks, potential implementation of a property tax and interest rate hikes.
» Physical market woes: Impact on earnings and NAV
We are factoring in ASP and contracted sales YoY decline assumptions under the tighter down payment and mortgage requirements. We maintain our assumption of FY10 total transaction volume to decline by about 20% YoY and look for contracted sales of developers to generally fall 15-20% YoY in 2010. We also expect overall primary spot ASPs in 2010 to drop 10-15% YoY.
» Quantifying downside risks
We highlight the earnings risks for FY11 in a scenario of falling prices. Our assumption of 10-15% cut in the spot FY10 prices leads to an average 20% earnings reduction at the eight developers under our coverage. In addition, we provide several sensitivity analyses to gauge NAV, earnings and balance sheet impacts on developers, should prices fall below this assumption.
» Patience warranted under current valuations
We arrive at our target prices by pegging a 20-40% NAV discount range. We rate Shimao as a BUY; COLI, CR Land, KWG, R&F, Glorious, and Longfor as HOLDs; and Sino Ocean as a REDUCE.CONTENTS
The return of a very visible hand 3
Policy and macro risks on the rise 3
The backdrop of macro measures 5
Timing the physical market recovery 7
Physical market woes: Pressure on earnings/NAV 8
Quantifying downside risks 10
Our current physical market assumptions 10
Stress-testing developers 10
Patience warranted under current valuations 16
Finding a floor value 16
Summary financial statements: 19
China Overseas Land (688.HK) 19
China Resources Land (1109.HK) 21
Glorious Property (845.HK) 23
Guangzhou R&F (2777.HK) 25
KWG Property (1813.HK) 27
Longfor Property (960.HK) 29
Shimao Property (813.HK) 31
Sino Ocean Land (3377.HK) 33
Appendix charts: 35
Volume and ASP comparisons between trough and peak levels 35
Affordability 36
Analyst team profile 38
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