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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月中国地产行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：44
【目录或简介】：
While we remain positive on pricing
power in the near term, developers’ net
margin will be capped with LAT in place
􀀗 Raising asset turn and leverage are key
drivers to ROE expansion and earnings
growth, which should drive valuation
􀀗 We like high asset turn plays with
strong B/S for NAV growth & ROE
expansion potential. Our picks are
Agile, Shimao and Sino-Ocean
Supply squeeze in key cities still intact. Units available for
sale in key cities have been at a relatively tight level and
represent 2-10 months of current take-up rate. While key
cities have been accelerating land supply, we believe the
tight supply will stay for another 6-9 months.
Rising property prices come with potentially higher
policy risks. Housing prices and the property cycle in China
have been highly influenced by government policies. Hence,
we believe multiple years of asset price inflation without
mid-cycle correction is difficult to sustain.
Back to basics – earnings growth & ROE expansion are
key catalysts. Value enhancing land acquisitions have been
a key driver to NAV growth and valuation. We believe
investors will focus on earnings growth and ROE expansion
(or value creation to shareholders) as a gauge to valuation.
With net margin being capped by LAT, asset turn and
leverage will be the key driver for ROE, which in the
medium term should drive PB. In the near term, with
contracted sales unlikely to break the record high in mid-
2009, the sector is likely to lock into a trading range.
Valuations of mid-cap plays with high asset turn more
appealing. We initiate coverage on Agile, Franshion and
Sino-Ocean. Our picks are Agile, Shimao and Sino-Ocean.
We also like COLI among large-cap plays – an Asia’s Super
Ten idea – and KWG among small-cap plays. We upgrade
Guangzhou R&F from N(V) to OW(V) with an improved
cash flow position and downgrade Shui On Land from
OW(V) to N(V) with concerns about the pace of
resettlement of the Taipingqiao site on the rise.
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