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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国消费行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：111
【目录或简介】：
Fundamental: The changing complexion of growth retailing
After an average '07-'09 EPS decline of 10% for the hardline group, 8% for the
broadliners, and +11% for the softline group, we believe that growth through
2013, will resume to ~17% for the hardliners, to 13% for the broadliners, and to
19% for specialty apparel (5 names). This will compare to the growth rate
achieved in the heady days of 2000-2007, though with a much slower SQFT.
growth outlook. The difference will be a stronger contribution to the P&L from the
balance sheet, as growing cash balances contribute more to EPS than in the past.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
FITT Research
Top picks
Best Buy (BBY.N),USD48.58 Buy
Family Dollar Stores (FDO.N),USD40.28 Buy
The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX.N),USD48.01 Buy
Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN.OQ),USD39.87 Buy
J.C. Penney Company (JCP.N),USD32.00 Buy
Companies featured
Best Buy (BBY.N),USD48.58 Buy
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF.N),USD48.68 Hold
AutoZone (AZO.N),USD184.05 Hold
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY.OQ),USD47.84 Hold
Big 5 Sporting Goods (BGFV.OQ),USD17.92 Buy
Dollar General (DG.N),USD29.38 Buy
Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS.N),USD30.78 Buy
Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR.OQ),USD62.63 Hold
Family Dollar Stores (FDO.N),USD40.28 Buy
The Gap, Inc. (GPS.N),USD26.06 Sell
Home Depot (HD.N),USD36.39 Hold
Lowe's Companies (LOW.N),USD28.22 Buy
99 Cents Only Stores (NDN.N),USD16.73 Hold
Office Depot (ODP.N),USD8.45 Hold
OfficeMax (OMX.N),USD16.63 Hold
O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY.OQ),USD46.27 Buy
PetSmart, Inc. (PETM.OQ),USD34.61 Hold
Ross Stores Inc (ROST.OQ),USD58.51 Hold
RadioShack (RSH.N),USD23.17 Hold
Staples (SPLS.OQ),USD24.61 Buy
The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX.N),USD48.01 Buy
Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN.OQ),USD39.87 Buy
Williams-Sonoma (WSM.N),USD31.08 Hold
BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ.N),USD39.70 Hold
CVS Caremark Corporation (CVS.N),USD37.01 Buy
Costco Wholesale (COST.OQ),USD60.14 Hold
Dillard's (DDS.N),USD30.57 Buy
J.C. Penney Company (JCP.N),USD32.00 Buy
Kohl's (KSS.N),USD58.48 Buy
Macy's Inc. (M.N),USD24.83 Hold
Nordstrom (JWN.N),USD45.90 Buy
Rite Aid Corporation (RAD.N),USD1.42 Hold
Saks Inc. (SKS.N),USD10.19 Buy
Sears Holdings Corp. (SHLD.OQ),USD122.01 Hold
Target (TGT.N),USD57.94 Buy
Wal-Mart (WMT.N),USD54.53 Buy
Walgreen (WAG.N),USD35.86 Hold
Kroger Co. (KR.N),USD23.70 Buy
Safeway (SWY.N),USD26.77 Buy
SUPERVALU (SVU.N),USD16.00 Hold
Whole Foods Market (WFMI.OQ),USD40.20 Hold
Global Markets Research Company
Industry: One benefit of the Great Recession is improved balance sheets
Hardline, broadline, and softline retailers cut SG&A/SQFT., inventory/SQFT., and
cap ex in 2008 and 2009. This enabled a 100%+ increase in free cash flow in 2009
for the hardline and softline groups, and by 57% for the broadliners, leading to
higher cash balances, even as sales fell and margins remain below historic levels.
As a result, cash as a percent of enterprise value is at or near 10-year highs, and
on average the hardliners ended ‘09 with net cash (vs. net debt) for the first time
since ‘02. As a result, adj. debt/EBITDAR ratios fell in ’09, after spiking in ‘08.
Thematic: Cash contributes to growth in six ways
Most importantly, the stronger balance sheets are enabling companies that
survived the shakeout to reinvest in their businesses through higher cap ex, which
we believe will be up 30%+ in ‘10 for both the hard- and softline groups, and +8%
for broadliners. Capital will be spent on systems, store refurbishments, and on a
rebound in SQFT., each of which contributes to sales and margin growth. Second,
inventories/SQFT. will be up 1% in ‘10, helping sales. Third, below the EBIT line,
higher cash balances, even after the cap ex spike, will lead to lower net interest
expense as debt is paid down, and, fourth, lower share counts as buybacks
increase by 2x in ‘10 after falling nearly 100% in ‘08 for the hardliners and by 25%
for the broadliners. Fifth, dividend payouts were up 5% for the hardliners in ’09
(+2% for broad-/softliners) versus ‘08 on average, although the yield fell on higher
stock prices. Last, better balance sheets could contribute to M&A opportunities.
Thought leading: Multiples should expand closer to past levels
With growth trends rebounding to historic rates (17% for hardliners, 13% for
broadliners, 19% for softliners), we are increasing our avg. target multiples closer
to the 10Y averages. We stop short of a full return to the avg. multiples as more
growth comes ‘below the EBIT’ line than in the past, which typically is valued
lower. We are therefore moving to an avg. target multiple of 16x for the hardliners,
16.5x for the broadliners, and 15.5x for the softliners (5 names), below the LT avg.,
but above our previous methodology, which used 15x, 16x, and 15x respectively.
This enables us to raise price targets across the majority of names our coverage.
Actionable: Maintain Overweight rating and increasing price targets
We are raising our price targets to an average of 16x our 2011 hardliner EPS ests.,
16.5x for the broadliners, and 15.5x for the softliners (5 names), based on the
resumption of past growth rates. Favorite names: Best Buy, Family Dollar, O’Reilly
Auto Parts, JC Penney, Dillard’s, TJX Companies, and Urban Outfitters.
This report changes ratings, price targets, and/or estimates for several
companies under coverage. For a detailed listing of these changes, see
Table of Contents
Executive Summary............................................................................ 4
The changing complexion of growth retailing................................. 9
Best Buy – The Best Combination of Fundamentals and
Valuation ........................................................................................... 43
Big Five Sporting Goods – Positive sales trends driving EPS ...... 48
Dick's Sporting Goods – Square footage growth drives market
share gains ........................................................................................ 53
Family Dollar – Trends Getting Better as the Economy
Improves............................................................................................ 59
Lowe's – Macro outlook looking better.......................................... 65
O’Reilly Auto Parts ........................................................................... 73
Staples – Leveraging Strengths to Take Share.............................. 86
Broadline BUY Rated Names........................................................... 91
Hardline HOLD rated names with PT changes............................. 102
Broadline HOLD rated names with PT changes........................... 104
Specialty apparel BUY rated names with PT changes ................ 106
Acknowledgements........................................................................ 108
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