发帖
雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国银行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：117
【目录或简介】：
Downgrading midcap banks to In-Line: We believe
the midcap banks are going to trade in line with the
overall market given lack of specific catalysts following a
very strong 1Q10 earnings season and a revaluation of
the stocks given much clearer trends showing broad
credit improvement. The recent rally in the group
appears justified given favorable credit trends, but at this
point, the valuation of many of the banks already reflect
the credit improvement we expect in 2010.
Upside from here, but the easy pickings are gone:
We believe the market has accurately captured the
reduced risk of the bear case for the group, with the
stocks up 27% YTD (outperforming the S&P 500 by 19
percentage points) and nearly double their March 2009
lows. However, we see less upside for the group going
forward, with total 12-month returns of just 8%. As such,
stock selection will become a much more important
driver of returns near term.
Recommend taking more credit risk: We tend to
favor the ‘credit-sensitive’ banks — those that are either
still addressing sizable credit issues or have just crossed
back into profitability which are also trading at
below-peer valuation multiples. Our top picks are Zions
and Comerica, which will benefit from both improving
credit and higher interest rates.
1Q10 earnings characterized by improving credit:
Provision expenses were down across the board as the
banks reduced charge-offs and further de-risked their
balance sheets. NIM continues to improve and reserve
build appears to be coming to an end. We believe these
trends will continue well into 2010, but believe much of
the upside has already been priced into the stocks.
Contents
Industry Downgrade…………...………………….………….2
1Q10 Takeaways………………………………….………….5
EPS and Price Target Changes …………………………..14
Company Discussion ………………………...…….………16
Scenario Analysis …………………………………………..30
Models ……………………………………………………….31
京公网安备 11010802022788号
