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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月欧洲宏观经济研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：26
【目录或简介】：
The data flow from Germany is very favourable, strengthening our call that,
after a mediocre start of the year largely on account of exceptional weather
conditions, GDP in Germany will be relatively strong this year. We expect a
gain in annual average of 2.0% this year.
We also expect a significantly positive growth differential vis-à-vis the rest of
the Euro area in 2010 (growth of 0.9% in euro area ex-Germany). A
stimulative fiscal stance in Germany is a part of the explanation, but the
higher sensitivity of the German economy to the rebound in demand outside
the Euro area plays the most important role.
We do not expect the relatively strong German growth to have any major
spill-over effect on the rest of the Euro area. German trade is becoming less
integrated to the rest of the Euro area not only on the export side, but also
on the import side. The German export machine is less and less reliant on
intra-Eurozone inputs. Euro area countries, and more particularly the
peripherals, will have to look to extra-eurozone demand for support while
domestic demand is likely to be dampened for several years by the
adjustment of private and public balance sheets.
This is consistent with our call that one of the long term consequences of the
2008/2009 downturn for Europe will be a generalized conversion to the
“German model”, i.e. a situation in which domestic demand is constrained
by the competitiveness imperative, while exports increasingly focus on
extra-Eurozone markets.
Also in this week’s Focus Europe we preview the ECB’s May Council
meeting. Attention will focus on Greece, the euro sovereign debt market
tensions, the ECB’s liquidity protocols and their policy flexibility. We also
update the outlook for the UK general election on Thursday and explore the
recent trends in core inflation indicators across the US, UK and euro area.
Table of Contents
ECB flexibility is key.......................................... Page 03
Germany’s limited spillover into euro area....... Page 08
Euroland Inflation.............................................. Page 12
UK Election Update: Into the final week........... Page 14
Rate Views ....................................................... Page 19
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