2010年4月中国制造业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国制造业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：36
        【目录或简介】：

March trends in line with expectations
The majority of macro data for March was broadly in line with expectations,
leaving full year GDP and FAI growth forecasts unchanged. This month, China
announced lending restrictions to cool the booming property market, but at least
for a while newsflow may now shift to the Shanghai Expo - May sees the start of
this six month long trade fair, reported to have cost >US$55bn to stage including
infrastructure investment. In this month's feature article we focus on the Machine
tool industry, where China became the world's largest producer in 2009.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Industry Update
GDP forecasts unchanged for 2010/11
+6%
+7%
+8%
+9%
+10%
+11%
+12%
S e
p 0 5
N o v
0 5
J a
n 0 6
M a r
0 6
M a y
0 6
Ju l
0 6
S e
p 0 6
N o v
0 6
J a
n 0 7
M a r
0 7
M a y
0 7
Ju l
0 7
S e
p 0 7
N o v
0 7
J a
n 0 8
M a r
0 8
M a y
0 8
Ju l
0 8
S e
p 0 8
N o v
0 8
J a
n 0 9
M a r
0 9
M a y
0 9
Ju l
0 9
S e
p 0 9
N o v
0 9
J a
n 1 0
M a r
1 0
2006 GDP forecast 2007 GDP forecast 2008 GDP
2009 GDP forecast 2010 GDP 2011 GDP
... as are FAI forecasts
+0%
+5%
+10%
+15%
+20%
+25%
+30%
+35%
J a
n 0 6
A p r
0 6
Ju l
0 6
O c t
0 6
J a
n 0 7
A p r
0 7
Ju l
0 7
O c t
0 7
J a
n 0 8
A p r
0 8
Ju l
0 8 O c t 0 8
J a
n 0 9
A p r
0 9
Ju l
0 9
O c t
0 9
Jan 1 0
A p r
1 0
2006 FAI forecast 2007 FAI forecast 2008 FAI forecast
2009 FAI forecast 2010 FAI forecast 2011 FAI forecast
March growth in-line with expectations
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Ja n -
0 5
M a y -
0 5
S e p -
0 5
Ja n -
0 6
M a y -
0 6
S e p -
0 6
Ja n -
0 7
M a y -
0 7
S e p -
0 7
Ja n -
0 8
M a y -
0 8
S e p -
0 8
Ja n -
0 9
M a y -
0 9
S e p -
0 9
Ja n - 1 0
China IP YoY China FAI YoY China Power Generation YoY
... although PMI picks up
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ju l
0 5
O c t
0 5
Jan 0 6
A p r
0 6
Ju l
0 6
O c t
0 6
Jan 0 7
A p r
0 7
Ju l
0 7
O c t
0 7
Jan 0 8
A p r
0 8
Ju l
0 8
O c t
0 8
Jan 0 9
A p r
0 9
Ju l
0 9
O c t
0 9
Jan 1 0
PMI
Global Markets Research Company
Macro trends – Import growth momentum sustained
The majority of March economic data was broadly in line with expectations.
Notable points include that Urban Fixed Asset Investment grew 26.4% YoY in Q1,
slowing slightly from the +26.6% seen in Jan-Feb and marginally higher than
consensus expectations of +26%. DB economists expect a further slowing in the
rate of FAI growth for the remainder of the year, forecasting +20% for 2010 as a
whole. While China has announced measures to cool the property market, lower
than expected inflation in March arguably defers the decision on potential rate
hikes.
Feature article – Machine tools market in China.
China has held the world’s No.1 position for both machine tool purchases and
machine tool imports for the last eight years, and overtook Japan and Germany to
become the world’s largest machine tool producer in 2009. In the domestic
Chinese market, the high-end computerized numerical controlled (CNC) machine
tool market is still dominated by foreign brands, while most local enterprises
compete in the non CNC low-to-mid market including Huadong Automation,
Qianchuan Machinery, Kunming Machine Tools and Shenyang Machine Tools.The
Chinese government listed CNC controlled machine tools as a target industry to
create national champions in its 11th Five Year Plan (2006-2010). The next five year
plan (covering 2011-2015) is due for publication this year, where we expect further
focus on this industry. While China is the largest importer and largest producer of
machine tools globally, it ranks only number six in terms of exports.
China industrial newsflow
In this month’s newsflow from the Chinese press we highlight 1) China's first
smart grid demonstration project has started construction in Tianjin; 2) the NDRC
is considering separating control of the transmission and distribution power grids;
3) ABB wins USD 20m order in China 4) Siemens to equip gas turbine power plant
in China; 5) SKF inaugurates wind industry service centre in Shanghai; and 6)
Philips supplies LEDs for China highway project.
Valuation and risks
For our valuation methodology in Europe, we prefer to use EV/EBIT and DCF
selectively. In the US, our preferred valuation methodology is DCF, supporting this
with relative multiple analysis with a preference for P/E and EV/EBITDA. Risks: The
capital goods sector is very diverse. Demand for industrial products correlates
with GDP over time but can diverge significantly over the shorter term depending
on company-specific factors. (See page 32 for more detail).

Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Introduction..............................................................................................................................3
Macro forecast remained unchanged, import growth momentum sustained...........................3
Feature article: Machine tools market in China .........................................................................3
China industrials newsflow .......................................................................................................3
China forecasts .................................................................................. 4
The big picture................................................................................... 7
Chinese inflation.......................................................................................................................7
Industrial Value Added ..............................................................................................................8
Urban FAI.................................................................................................................................9
Electricity Generation..............................................................................................................11
Chinese PMI ...........................................................................................................................12
Cargo Freight Mileage.............................................................................................................13
OECD CLI...............................................................................................................................14
The Machine Tools Market ............................................................. 15
Introduction............................................................................................................................15
Market at a glance ..................................................................................................................16
China’s monthly performance in 2009 ....................................................................................18
Demand analysis.....................................................................................................................20
Manufacturers globally and domestically................................................................................22
Appendix .......................................................................................... 27
Key Projects For Revitalizing China’s Equipment Manufacturing Industry (2006-2010) ..........27
Industrial newsflow......................................................................... 28
Macro economy......................................................................................................................28
Industry ..................................................................................................................................29
Company................................................................................................................................30
Valuation & risks ............................................................................. 32
Europe ...................................................................................................................................32
US ..........................................................................................................................................32
Risks ......................................................................................................................................32

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