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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月俄罗斯电力行业研究报告
【作者】：VPB capital
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：43
【目录或简介】：
Visibility over the introduction of RAB has now improved and we are
therefore revising our models to include the new iRAB assumptions
and some other changes. We now rate all MRSKs a Buy. Our new 12-
month Target Prices have been upgraded an average of 34% and the
average upside potential on the stocks in our universe is 85%.
We upgraded total iRAB 19% on average, from RUB 770bn to
RUB 914bn as a result of our more positive expectations of the MRSKs’
success in lobbying for the RAB base. The recent guidance by MRSK
Holding and the regional MRSKs supports our view. However, our new
forecast is still 24% below the maximum target of MRSK Holding
(RUB 1,200bn) which leaves room for upside in our valuations.
We moved the timing of RAB adoption forward one year to 2011 for all
MRSKs on the back of the government decree which schedules the
timing of RAB introduction. We do not believe that the adoption of RAB
will face any delays (or, if it does, that they will be minimal).
Our top picks in the distribution universe are MRSK of Volga, MRSK of
Siberia, MRSK of Centre and Volga (based on their upside potentials).
MRSKs trades at 0.49 EV/iRAB, an average 60% discount to DM and
EM peers. At EV/EBITDA 4.0x as of 2011, MRSKs trade with an average
42% discount to peers. A 2011F P/E multiple of 8.2x suggests a 28%
discount to peers (improving to 4.7x (53% discount to peers) in 2012).
Having revised our MRSK models, we are upgrading our 2010-18
consolidated revenues, EBITDA and net income forecasts 15%, 15%
and 23%, respectively. We expect CAGRs of 7%, 14% and 28% over
the same period.
Risks stem from lower than expected iRAB base or delays adopting
RAB. The customer drain is another risk for MRSKs, although we
expect the state to address this by extending the ban on switching
until 2014 and implementing a compensation scheme thereafter.
Table of contents ............................................................................... 2
Investment case ................................................................................ 3
Valuation update ............................................................................... 6
We are revising our models to include new iRAB assumptions ......... 6
RAB implementation year moved from 2012 to 2011;
other changes and updates ............................................................. 7
New macro forecasts had a slight positive impact on valuation ....... 8
We have revised the consolidated MRSK revenues,
EBITDA and net income 15%, 15% and 23%, respectively ............... 8
We are increasing 12-mo TPs for MRSKs 34% on average
and see 85% upside ....................................................................... 9
Sector overview update ................................................................... 12
Government approves RAB introduction schedule
throughout 2010 ........................................................................... 12
Regulated period to be extended from 3 to 5 years
to allow smoother RAB introduction .............................................. 14
Key RAB parameters for MRSKs not likely to be changed
and come above those for FSK ...................................................... 14
MRSK Holding partners with Electricity de France .......................... 15
‘Last mile’ scheme to be extended until 2014
and likely compensated thereafter ................................................ 16
MRSK Holding intends to raise USD 600mn through a series
of new share offerings in 2010-13 ................................................. 17
MRSK Holding intends to pay dividends for preferred shares
this year ........................................................................................ 18
Appendix 1: Company pages ........................................................... 19
Appendix 2: Changes in financials ................................................... 31
Appendix 3: DCF valuations ............................................................. 35
VTB Capital — Equity rating definitions .......................................... 41
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