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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月俄罗斯电力行业研究报告
【作者】：VTB capital
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：37
【目录或简介】：
Gencos struggled against the current; discos corrected
Electric Utilities were mixed in April with VTB Capital’s Electric Utilities
declining 0.6% amid fragile market. Power generation (+1.7%) sought
succour from approval of capacity market parameters and outpaced
the RTS Index (flat) while electric grids have been hit by 4.1%. Some
correction took place after the long-lasting rally, yet both power
generation and electric grids have been the winning sectors YTD.
Electricity production continues to recover with a 1.4% YoY rise,
moderating from a cold 1Q10, but with an upturn in adjusted growth
Growth in electricity production on the wholesale market continued on
the recovery track this year, though moderating in April to 1.4% YoY
from the cold 1Q10 (when production rose 6.1% YoY). Total
consumption growth in Russia was higher at 3.2% YoY in April,
affected by a surge in the Far East and stood at 5.3% in January-
April 2010. This April was 1.5°C warmer than 2009, which caused a
slowdown in growth in absolute terms, while we estimate the
temperature-adjusted consumption growth was at 4.8%, above the
levels seen in March (3.2%), January (-0.2%) and February (1.8%).
Free prices in Russia are 43% higher YoY; flat MoM (+0.4%)
Free electricity prices continue strong YoY dynamics, growing 45% in
Europe/Urals and 33% in Siberia. YTD prices grew 58% in Russia.
The long term capacity market’s parameters approved; market to be
launched in 2011.
On 13 April, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin signed a decree approving
the capacity market’s price parameters. Thus, the government has
mostly finalised the capacity market’s structure and gencos are set to
shift to new regulation starting from next year. The fact that the
capacity parameters have been approved is very encouraging and this
is an important development for the sector overall. The competitive
auction for 2011 is due to be held before 1 October 2010.
Table of Contents .............................................................................. 2
Key story of the month ....................................................................... 3
April news snapshot .......................................................................... 5
Key events monitor ............................................................................ 6
Stock performances .......................................................................... 7
Gencos struggled against the current; discos corrected ................... 7
Price performances in selected pairs ............................................... 9
Electricity market and consumption statistics .................................. 12
Statistics for free electricity market pricing .................................... 13
Production statistics ...................................................................... 14
Consumption statistics .................................................................. 15
Appendix 1: Consensus tracker ....................................................... 16
Appendix 2: OGKs’ 1H09 performance............................................. 17
Operating results ........................................................................... 17
Financial results reveal OGK frontrunners ...................................... 17
Appendix 3: MRSKs 1H09 performance ........................................... 22
Appendix 4: Peers valuation ............................................................ 25
Figure 53: Fossil fuel generation, 2009-12F ................................... 25
Figure 54: Fossil fuel generation, 2009-12F (continued) ................. 26
Figure 55: Hydro generation, 2009-12F .......................................... 27
Figure 56: Integrated utilities, 2009-12F ........................................ 28
Figure 57: Integrated utilities, 2009-12F (continued) ..................... 29
Figure 58: Transmission grids, 2009-12F ....................................... 30
Figure 59: Distribution grids, 2009-12F .......................................... 31
Figure 60: Other RAB-regulated utilities, 2009-12F ........................ 32
Figure 61: Russian grids (FSK and MRSKs), 2009-10F ..................... 33
Appendix 5: VTB Capital Indices – composition and methodology ... 34
Disclosures ..................................................................................... 35
VTB Capital — Equity rating definitions .......................................... 35
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