2010年5月巴西银行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月巴西银行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：38
        【目录或简介】：Loan growth and better credit quality are
the key drivers
 Funding costs are rising at the margin,
but we expect a limited margin impact
 Expanding ROEs, in the main, drive our
positive ratings; we revise TPs on ABC
Brasil, BICBanco, Daycoval, Paraná and
Sofisa
Further to go
Riding the credit cycle
We see healthy credit growth potential for the Brazil midcap
banks, and further improvements in asset quality. SME
loan demand is picking up with consumer and payroll credit
activity also growing, so we forecast that our universe of Brazil
mid-cap banks should see credit growth in the range of 23-35%
for 2010. We believe that SME loan growth follows on the coattails
of increased large corporate activity. Credit quality is also
improving for the mid-cap banks, with NPL formation having
peaked in 3Q 2009 and further potential for NPL ratio
reduction.
Increased competition and rising interest rates should not
derail the earnings growth story. Big cap Brazil banks are
also focusing on the growth markets of SME credit and, to a
lesser degree, the payroll credit market. We believe that, in
SME and middle market credit, mid-cap banks have the
advantage of established relationships with their clients as well
as experience in credit risk assessment. Funding costs are likely
to rise, at the margin, due to rising benchmark rates and a
withdrawal of system liquidity; but many of these banks have
secured long term funding in the markets recently, and they
have limited exposure to funding from big cap banks, ranging
from 1 to 10% of their needs.
ABC Brasil and BICBanco are our main Overweight (V)
rated picks, along with Daycoval and Sofisa. We believe that
ABC Brasil is the best combination of growth and value in the
space, while BICBanco is the premium ROE bank in our midcap
universe. Daycoval delivers premium RORWA and is our
preferred name in the middle market segment. Sofisa is at the
deep value end of the spectrum, and we believe that the market
undervalues the premium price of its consumer portfolio sale,
and the high level of coverage of this portfolio.

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