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【出版时间及名称】：2010年三季度亚洲股票投资策略报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：52
【目录或简介】： Key highlights
1.
The principal headwinds to APxJ/EM equities early in H1 were domestic inflation & policy tightening. The tailwinds have been global economic recovery and continued positive revisions to earnings.
2.
More recently, European sovereign risk issues and global growth concerns (on peaking PMIs) have been negative factors.
3.
On 26th May we went UW cash and raised equities to 6% OW. MSCI EM valuations (forward PER, DDM, historical PBR) had reached levels consistent with high positive returns over 6m and 12m horizons. There is 30% upside to our MXEF scenario weighted target price of 1,200.
4.
The major catalysts for the equity market to improve are a) lower inflation and reduced policy risk in Asia / EM, b) positive resolution of the market’s uncertainty over 2011 global growth (MS 4.2%), and c) CNY de-peg.
5.
Our country OWs are Korea, Russia, China and Brazil. We are UW Mexico, Indonesia, Thailand, Colombia, Peru, Hungary and Philippines.
6.
Our sector OWs are Consumer Discretionary and Energy. We are UW Telecoms, Utilities and Healthcare.
7.
At the stock level we continue to use our Best Business Models framework in conjunction with the views of MS analysts to enhance our GEM and APxJ focus lists.
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