【Wind资讯合作伙伴】China Investment Atlas（Issue 27）：Workers unite！

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HSBC孙瑜发布最新策略研究《China Investment Atlas (Issue 27): Workers unite!》，对中国新的收入分配政策重点和城市化发表点评

报告标题： 【Wind资讯合作伙伴】China Investment Atlas（Issue 27）：Workers unite！    报告类别： 策略研究    来　　源： 万得伙伴    作　　者： Steven[/url];Sun[url=http://m.wind.com.cn/];Garry[/url];Evans[url=http://m.wind.com.cn/];Devendra[/url];Joshi[url=http://m.wind.com.cn/]    证券代码：    证券简称：    所属行业：    收录时间： 2010年7月12日    撰写时间： 2010年7月9日    阅读次数： 90    评　　级： -    评级调整： -    目 标 价： -

附件列表：     报告摘要： 　　Investors should pay close attention to China’s renewedpolicy focus on income distribution and urbanisation，particularly in the western regions (pages 4-6，13-20). 　　Shifting demographics are starting to reshape its economicfuture and social trends. Together with severe income andregional inequality (Gini coefficient over 50% in 2006)resulting from extremely low and unevenly distributedlabour compensation，as well as the urban and rural dualstructure，demographic change could trigger more socialunrest，undermining both economic prosperity and socialstability. Thus，urgent policy response is warranted. 　　Rebalancing the share of labour compensation as % ofGDP could hurt corporate profits (pages 10-11). Its sharedropped by 13ppts in 1997-2007 and the trend needs to bereversed. In absolute terms，labour compensation coulddouble in five years’time to an estimated RMB31trn by2015e，or roughly 45% of GDP in that year. This inferspolicy-enforced redistribution of an estimated RMB400bn+in 2011e out of either corporate profits or government tax. 　　And don’t bank on an easing of liquidity to fuel China’sstock markets (pages 7-9). While the case for aggressivetightening and more property austerity measures is likely toweaken in 2H2010， it would be wishful thinking to expectthe government to loosen up on monetary policy andproperty austerity measures to stimulate the economy again. 　　Foreign capital inflows， a key driver of domestic liquiditysupply through the PBoC’s sterilization， are set to moderate. 　　We cut index targets further by 10-18%： MSCI China to65; Hang Seng Index to 22，000; HSCEI to 13，000 andSHCOMP to 2，800， inferring a moderate 5-15% upside. 　　For sector allocation， we overweight energy (↑)， consumerstaples and discretionary， healthcare， IT and industrials (↑);are neutral on banks， insurance and materials (↓); andunderweight on properties， IPPs and telecom services.

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1# jh81522
Thanks!