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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国航空行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：51
【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Outlook – Long-term prospect for Chinese airlines is still bright...............................................3
Valuation: Compelling growth not priced in ..............................................................................4
Risks: inability to execute well, fuel price hikes, etc…..............................................................4
The world’s largest high-speed railway .......................................... 5
Key points ................................................................................................................................5
Overview of China’s ambitious high-speed railway plans .........................................................5
Ticket price war unlikely............................................................................................................7
Overseas experience: Airlines not only survived, but thrived....... 8
Key points ................................................................................................................................8
Overview of high-speed railway development around the globe..............................................8
Why competitive? A mix of pricing, convenience and comfort.................................................8
Korea: Korean Air pushed to outperform outside the country.................................................10
Japan: High-speed railway did not stop the airlines from growing .........................................14
France: No solid sign of passenger or revenue drag by TGV ..................................................16
Taiwan: High-speed railway is not to blame............................................................................18
Key takeaway: Do not overestimate the negative impact .......................................................20
Growth in China to stay intact ....................................................... 21
Key points ...............................................................................................................................21
Chinese airlines, particularly CSA, likely to see initial pressure ...............................................21
2010 growth to remain favourable..........................................................................................22
Underpenetration implies ample room for int’l traffic growth.................................................22
Government’s ongoing support also helps .............................................................................23
Air China – poised to evolve....................................................................................................24
CEA – Helped by its hometown’s infrastructure .....................................................................24
CSA – Long road to transformation.........................................................................................25
BCIA – Possibly a beneficiary from the beginning ..................................................................26
Buying growth ................................................................................. 27
Key points ...............................................................................................................................27
Overview: Buy BCIA and CEA; Hold Air China; Sell CSA.........................................................27
FY09E results preview ............................................................................................................28
Air China – Relatively strong fundamentals in the price; Hold.................................................30
China Eastern Airlines – Upgrade to Buy on earnings recovery ..............................................31
China Southern Airlines – Facing the strongest headwind; Sell ..............................................33
Beijing Capital Int’l Airport – Highly leveraged on the upside; Buy..........................................35
Sector risks ...................................................................................... 37
Inability to boost international business..................................................................................37
Surge in fuel price ...................................................................................................................37
Slow RMB appreciation or big interest rate hike.....................................................................37
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