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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月欧洲金属与矿产行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：52
【目录或简介】：
We are upgrading ANTO from UW(V) to
N(V) and downgrading BOL from N(V)
to UW(V)
We have raised estimates across the
sector. We see capital management and
M&A emerging as key issues H2
We retain our preference for RIO, AAL
and VED (all OW(V)) in the miners
Higher, but for good reason
Mining stocks have performed relatively well in recent
weeks, but we see this as justified by the surprisingly good
outcomes seen in bulk commodity markets. Upward
consensus estimate revisions for 2010e of 10-30% for the
majors are justified by consensus changes to iron ore, coking
and thermal coal prices. Therefore we see the recent
moderate sector out-performance as justified and retain our
OW(V) ratings on stocks with further upside surprise
potential (RIO, AAL) and good organic growth (VED).
Our first trend (bulk commodity strength) has now largely
played out but our second (distortions and corrections in
exchange traded metals) remains in full swing. We’ve raised
our 2010 copper price assumptions from USD2.80/lb to
USD3.25/lb – fundamentals have been poor as we expected, but
in the current market, negative catalysts need to be
overwhelming and, absent an interruption to global growth, we
don’t expect this in the near-term. We have upgraded ANTO
from UW(V) to N(V) to reflect this changed view.
The risk now is that the market again gets carried away with
the sector (consensus estimates in 2011-12 are beginning to
looked overcooked as commodities prices are again
extrapolated). However we don’t yet see valuations stretched
and we see non-commodity catalysts such as the emerging
capital market issue and the return of M&A as supportive
in H2. The combination of high commodity prices, a push to
reduce structural costs and repaired balance sheets is
creating a wall of cash. But we see these trends as far more
stock specific those that have played out so far in 2010 and
we remain UW(V) on XTA, KGHM, AUR and NHY.
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