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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国航空行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：40
【目录或简介】：
Buy Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific; valuations inexpensive
We expect a strong earnings recovery from regional airlines in 2010. In particular,
we have been surprised by the quick rebound in premium traffic and our fears of a
structural decline in Asian premium traffic appear unfounded. We expect this
recovery to drive yield improvements in coming quarters. Top Buys in the sector
are SIA and CX because of their focus on the front-end cabin, with quarterly
earnings as key catalysts. We would also Buy Beijing Capital Airport for exposure
to long-term China aviation growth.
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Forecast Change
Top picks
Singapore Airlines (SIAL.SI),SGD15.54 Buy
Cathay Pacific (0293.HK),HKD16.26 Buy
Beijing Cap Int'l Airport (0694.HK),HKD4.68 Buy
China Airlines (2610.TW),TWD12.50 Buy
Companies featured
Singapore Airlines (SIAL.SI),SGD15.54 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 16.2 50.9 16.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.8 8.2 5.4
Price/book (x) 0.9 1.3 1.3
Korean Air (003490.KS),KRW69,200.00 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) – 129.6 23.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.4 8.5 7.6
Price/book (x) 1.22 1.39 1.31
Cathay Pacific (0293.HK),HKD16.26 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 62.7 19.5 13.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.2 6.1 5.1
Price/book (x) 1.3 1.4 1.3
China Eastern Airlines (0670.HK),HKD3.80 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) – – 34.4
EV/EBITDA (x) – 8.1 7.5
Price/book (x) -0.4 13.5 6.6
Beijing Cap Int'l Airport (0694.HK),HKD4.68 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 60.6 30.6 16.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 17.2 12.2 9.6
Price/book (x) 1.6 1.4 1.3
Air China (0753.HK),HKD7.64 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) – 55.8 23.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 22.2 10.9 10.7
Price/book (x) 1.3 3.3 2.5
China Southern Airlines (1055.HK),HKD3.72 Sell
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) – 39.7 48.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.3 8.6 8.5
Price/book (x) 1.6 1.4 1.3
China Airlines (2610.TW),TWD12.50 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) – 23.6 18.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 17.4 10.7 9.5
Price/book (x) 1.3 1.3 1.2
EVA Airways (2618.TW),TWD15.15 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) – – 21.1
EV/EBITDA (x) – 24.8 9.7
Price/book (x) 1.1 1.5 1.4
Thai Airways (THAI.BK),THB24.20 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 3.4 5.6 5.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.3 4.8 4.9
Price/book (x) 0.6 0.7 0.6
AirAsia (AIRA.KL),MYR1.32 Sell
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 5.7 7.0 6.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.6 7.9 7.6
Price/book (x) 1.4 1.1 1.0
Related recent research Date
China Aviation FITT : No de-railing air traffic growth
by Vincent Ha & Joe Liew 4 Mar 2010
Cathay Pacific : Strong 2H 09 results; firming recovery
by Joe Liew 10 Mar 2010
Beijing Capital Airport : Strong momentum continues
in FY10; maintain Buy
by Vincent Ha 24 March 2010
Global Markets Research Company
1Q 2010 earnings to confirm recovery trend; mgmt teams more upbeat
Feedback from airlines in the region point to strong 1Q 2010 performance on the
back of premium traffic returning, passenger (pax) yield improvements and
continued strength in the cargo business. Forward pax bookings are recovering
strongly. According to IATA, premium traffic growth in Asia has outpaced global
averages YTD. We expect airlines to be slow in reinstating pax capacity, which will
result in yield improvements. Cargo traffic and yields have continued their 4Q 2009
strength into 1Q 2010, but capacity introduction should slow momentum.
Sector average ROE improves from -0.6% in 2009 to 10.5% in 2010E
We expect stock prices of premium carriers SIA and CX to outperform the Chinese
airlines and Korean Air over the rest of this year. We think the stock prices of
Chinese airlines already reflect most of the good news relating to capital
injections, RMB appreciation and operational improvements. Similarly, Korean Air’s
30% appreciation over the past three months leads us to believe that current
valuations are fair. A summary of key earnings and our target price changes are
presented in Figure 17, page 8.
Focus on attractively valued laggards; key risk: jet fuel prices
Our Buy ratings are focused on airlines that are relatively attractive on a P/B basis.
SIA has underperformed peers by 16ppt over the past three months and is trading
at 1.3x FYMar11E P/B, which we think is attractive for a well-managed company
with the potential to positively surprise on dividends. Our FYMar10 net profit
estimate is 50% higher than consensus. CX is trading at 1.4x 2010E P/B and is
benefiting from a premium traffic and cargo revival. China Airlines trades at 1.25x
2010E P/B and offers exposure to improving cross-strait relations. Buy Beijing
Capital Airport because it offers significant operating leverage to the traffic growth
in China and has lagged the recent appreciation of the Chinese Airlines. Key
industry risk: rising jet fuel prices, poorer-than-expected traffic recovery. Increasing
low-cost carrier penetration is a risk for full-service carriers.
Table of Contents
Pax traffic and yield recovery ....................................................................................................3
Strong start, but cargo momentum expected to slow down....................................................5
Jet fuel nudging up ...................................................................................................................6
Strong 2010 earnings recovery .................................................................................................7
Key changes to earnings forecasts and target price .................................................................8
Investment recommendations ................................................................................................11
Key risks.................................................................................................................................17
AirAsia .............................................................................................. 20
Air China........................................................................................... 22
Cathay Pacific................................................................................... 24
China Airlines................................................................................... 26
China Southern Airlines .................................................................. 28
EVA Airways .................................................................................... 30
Korean Air......................................................................................... 32
Singapore Airlines ........................................................................... 34
Thai Airways .................................................................................... 36
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